What is Ambrx Biopharma Predictability Rank?
Not Rated
Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:
1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.
It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.
GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.
Ambrx Biopharma Predictability Rank Calculation
In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.
Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:
Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.
The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.
Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns
| Predictables | Non-Predictable | All stocks |
|---|
| Total Number of stocks | 570 | 1833 | 2403 |
| Total Lost Money | 61 | 830 | 891 |
| Total Lost More Than 50% | 18 | 412 | 430 |
| Total Lost More Than 90% | 4 | 86 | 90 |
| Average Gain | 260.6% | 100.0% | 138.1% |
| Median Gain | 150.0% | 13.0% | 39.0% |
| Maximum Gain | 2852.0% | 11483.0% | 11483.0% |
| Maximum Loss | -100.0% | -100.0% | -100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain | 12.7% | 6.7% | 8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain | 8.9% | 1.1% | 3.1% |
For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.
| Predictability Rank | 5-Star | 4.5-Star | 4-Star | 3.5-Star | 3-Star | 2.5-Star | 2-Star | 1-Star (non-predictable) | Average among all |
|---|
| % Out of All 2403 Stocks |
3.3% |
2.9% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
3.3% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
76.3% |
100% |
| % that are in Loss (10y) |
3% |
10% |
8% |
9% |
11% |
18% |
16% |
45% |
37% |
| Average Gain (10y) |
364.6% |
330.9% |
278.0% |
235.1% |
243.5% |
227.8% |
154.8% |
100.0% |
138.1% |
| Median Gain (10y) |
238.5% |
193.5% |
171.0% |
159.0% |
132.5% |
113.5% |
87.0% |
13.0% |
39.0% |
| Maximum Gainer |
2228.0% |
2547.0% |
2452.0% |
2852.0% |
2432.0% |
1892.0% |
1807.0% |
11483.0% |
11483.0% |
| Maximum Loser |
-82.0% |
-53.0% |
-67.0% |
-100.0% |
-83.0% |
-100.0% |
-78.0% |
-100.0% |
-100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain |
15.4% |
14.6% |
13.2% |
12.0% |
12.2% |
11.7% |
9.1% |
6.7% |
8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain |
12.1% |
10.6% |
9.8% |
9.3% |
8.2% |
7.3% |
6.0% |
1.1% |
3.1% |
For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank
Also read:
Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety
Ambrx Biopharma (Ambrx Biopharma) Business Description
Traded in Other Exchanges
Address
10975 North Torrey Pines Road, La Jolla, CA, USA, 92037
Ambrx Biopharma Inc is a clinical-stage biologics company focused on discovering and developing a novel class of engineered precision biologics (EPBs) using its proprietary expanded genetic code technology platform that allows incorporating synthetic amino acids (SAAs) into proteins within living cells. Its product pipeline includes ARX788, ARX517, ARX305 among others.
Executives
| Cormorant Asset Management, Lp |
10 percent owner |
200 CLARENDON STREET, 52ND FLOOR, BOSTON MA 02116 |
| Margaret Dalesandro |
director |
ONCOSEC MEDICAL INCORPORATED, 24 NORTH MAIN STREET, PENNINGTON NJ 08534 |
| Sonja Nelson |
officer: Chief Financial Officer |
C/O MOTUS GI HOLDINGS, INC., 1301 EAST BROWARD BOULEVARD, 3RD FLOOR, FT. LAUDERDALE FL 33301 |
| Daniel J. O'connor |
director, officer: President and CEO |
C/O SEELOS THERAPEUTICS, INC., 300 PARK AVENUE, 12TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10022 |
| Abhishek Trehan |
10 percent owner |
WHITELEY CHAMBERS, DON STREET, ST. HELIER Y9 JE2 4TR |
| Darwin Global Master Fund, Ltd. |
10 percent owner |
C/O OGIER GLOBAL (CAYMAN) LIMITED, 89 NEXUS WAY, CAMANA BAY, GRAND CAYMAN E9 KY1-9009 |
| Paul V Maier |
director |
3595 JOHN HOPKINS COURT, SAN DIEGO CA 92121 |
| Janet Loesberg |
director |
C/O AMBRX BIOPHARMA INC., 10975 NORTH TORREY PINES ROAD, LA JOLLA CA 92037 |
| Kate Hermans |
director |
C/O AMBRX BIOPHARMA INC., 10975 TORREY PINES ROAD, LA JOLLA CA 92037 |
| Xiaowei Chang |
director |
10975 NORTH TORREY PINES ROAD, LA JOLLA CA 92037 |
| Stephen C. Glover |
director |
108 DOCKSIDE CIRCLE, WESTON FL 33327 |
| Andrew Aromando |
officer: Chief Operating Officer |
C/O AMBRX BIOPHARMA INC., 10975 NORTH TORREY PINES ROAD, LA JOLLA CA 92037 |
| Cormorant Private Healthcare Fund Iii Lp |
10 percent owner |
200 CLARENDON STREET, 52ND FLOOR, BOSTON MA 02116 |
| Cormorant Global Healthcare Master Fund, Lp |
10 percent owner |
200 CLARENDON STREET, 52ND FLOOR, BOSTON MA 02116 |
| Bihua Chen |
10 percent owner |
C/O CORMORANT ASSET MANAGEMENT, LP, 200 CLARENDON STREET, 52ND FLOOR, BOSTON MA 02116 |
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