What is American Cannabis Co Predictability Rank?
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Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:
1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.
It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.
GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.
American Cannabis Co Predictability Rank Calculation
In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.
Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:
Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.
The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.
Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns
| Predictables | Non-Predictable | All stocks |
|---|
| Total Number of stocks | 570 | 1833 | 2403 |
| Total Lost Money | 61 | 830 | 891 |
| Total Lost More Than 50% | 18 | 412 | 430 |
| Total Lost More Than 90% | 4 | 86 | 90 |
| Average Gain | 260.6% | 100.0% | 138.1% |
| Median Gain | 150.0% | 13.0% | 39.0% |
| Maximum Gain | 2852.0% | 11483.0% | 11483.0% |
| Maximum Loss | -100.0% | -100.0% | -100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain | 12.7% | 6.7% | 8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain | 8.9% | 1.1% | 3.1% |
For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.
| Predictability Rank | 5-Star | 4.5-Star | 4-Star | 3.5-Star | 3-Star | 2.5-Star | 2-Star | 1-Star (non-predictable) | Average among all |
|---|
| % Out of All 2403 Stocks |
3.3% |
2.9% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
3.3% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
76.3% |
100% |
| % that are in Loss (10y) |
3% |
10% |
8% |
9% |
11% |
18% |
16% |
45% |
37% |
| Average Gain (10y) |
364.6% |
330.9% |
278.0% |
235.1% |
243.5% |
227.8% |
154.8% |
100.0% |
138.1% |
| Median Gain (10y) |
238.5% |
193.5% |
171.0% |
159.0% |
132.5% |
113.5% |
87.0% |
13.0% |
39.0% |
| Maximum Gainer |
2228.0% |
2547.0% |
2452.0% |
2852.0% |
2432.0% |
1892.0% |
1807.0% |
11483.0% |
11483.0% |
| Maximum Loser |
-82.0% |
-53.0% |
-67.0% |
-100.0% |
-83.0% |
-100.0% |
-78.0% |
-100.0% |
-100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain |
15.4% |
14.6% |
13.2% |
12.0% |
12.2% |
11.7% |
9.1% |
6.7% |
8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain |
12.1% |
10.6% |
9.8% |
9.3% |
8.2% |
7.3% |
6.0% |
1.1% |
3.1% |
For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank
Also read:
Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety
American Cannabis Co Business Description
Traded in Other Exchanges
N/A
Address
1004 Tejon Street, Colorado Springs, CO, USA, 80903
American Cannabis Co Inc is engaged in the cannabis industry that features end-to-end solutions for businesses operating in the regulated cannabis industry in states and countries where cannabis is regulated and/or has been decriminalized for medical use and/or legalized for recreational use. It provides advisory and consulting services specific to this industry, designs industry-specific products and facilities, and manages a strategic group partnership that offers both exclusive and non-exclusive customer products commonly used in the industry. It is a licensed operator of two medical cannabis dispensaries and a cannabis cultivation facility in Colorado Springs, CO.
Executives
| Tyler A Schloesser |
officer: Chief Operations Officer |
9874 WEST LA SALLE PLACE, LAKEWOOD CO 80227 |
| Ellis Lamar Smith |
director, 10 percent owner, officer: Cheif Development Officer |
2590 WALNUT ST, DENVER CO 80205 |
| Hollister Corey James Ariel |
director, 10 percent owner, officer: Chief Executive Officer |
5316 RUSTIC AVE, FIRESTONE CO 80504 |
| David Michael Godfrey |
officer: Principal Accounting Officer |
5690 LOGAN STREET, DENVER CO 80237 |
| Jon Workman |
officer: Vice President |
2600 RAY DEAN ROAD, TUCKER AR 72168 |
| Michael Schwanbeck |
officer: Chief Financial Officer |
555 E. 19TH AVENUE, #2421, DENVER CO 80203 |
| Tad M Mailander |
director |
4811 49TH STREET, SAN DIEGO CA 92115 |
| Terry Lynn Buffalo |
director, officer: CEO |
3063 BRIGHTON BLVD, #918, DENVER CO 80216 |
| Jesus Quintero |
officer: Former CFO |
16860 SOUTHWEST 1ST STREET, PEMBROKE PINES FL 33027 |
| Michael A Novielli |
director, 10 percent owner |
100 MILL PLAIN ROAD, 3RD FLOOR, DANBURY CT 06811 |
| Anthony J Baroud |
director, 10 percent owner, officer: Chief Technology Officer |
211 EAST CIRCLE AVE, PROSPECT HEIGHTS IL 60070 |
| Themistocles Psomiadis |
director, officer: Chief Executive Officer |
1420 MIDTOWN AVE, APT 407, MOUNT PLEASANT SC 29464 |
| Villas Boas Andrea Bezerra Arruda |
10 percent owner |
ALAMEDA UAPIXANA, 278, SAO PAULO D5 04085-030 |
| Douglas Leighton |
director |
312 STUART ST, BOSTON MA 02116 |
| Donald Brucker |
director, 10 percent owner, officer: VP Research & Development |
110 WEST C STREET, SUITE 1300, SAN DIEGO CA 92101 |
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