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American Sierra Gold (American Sierra Gold) Predictability Rank


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What is American Sierra Gold Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

American Sierra Gold Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

PredictablesNon-PredictableAll stocks
Total Number of stocks57018332403
Total Lost Money61830891
Total Lost More Than 50%18412430
Total Lost More Than 90%48690
Average Gain260.6%100.0%138.1%
Median Gain150.0%13.0%39.0%
Maximum Gain2852.0%11483.0%11483.0%
Maximum Loss-100.0%-100.0%-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain12.7%6.7%8.4%
Annualized Median Gain8.9%1.1%3.1%


















For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank5-Star4.5-Star4-Star3.5-Star3-Star2.5-Star2-Star1-Star (non-predictable)Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks 3.3% 2.9% 3.7% 3.3% 3.3% 3.7% 3.3% 76.3% 100%
% that are in Loss (10y) 3% 10% 8% 9% 11% 18% 16% 45% 37%
Average Gain (10y) 364.6% 330.9% 278.0% 235.1% 243.5% 227.8% 154.8% 100.0% 138.1%
Median Gain (10y) 238.5% 193.5% 171.0% 159.0% 132.5% 113.5% 87.0% 13.0% 39.0%
Maximum Gainer 2228.0% 2547.0% 2452.0% 2852.0% 2432.0% 1892.0% 1807.0% 11483.0% 11483.0%
Maximum Loser -82.0% -53.0% -67.0% -100.0% -83.0% -100.0% -78.0% -100.0% -100.0%
Annualized Average Gain 15.4% 14.6% 13.2% 12.0% 12.2% 11.7% 9.1% 6.7% 8.4%
Annualized Median Gain 12.1% 10.6% 9.8% 9.3% 8.2% 7.3% 6.0% 1.1% 3.1%
















For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Also read:

Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety

American Sierra Gold Predictability Rank Related Terms

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American Sierra Gold (American Sierra Gold) Business Description

Industry
GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Basic Materials » Metals & Mining » American Sierra Gold Corp (OTCPK:AMNP) » Definitions » Predictability Rank
Comparable Companies
ASX:GBR LSE:GRL TLRS ASX:AWV TSXV:KMT TSXV:LOT XCNQ:RFR ASX:GED XCNQ:RLG TSXV:CBR ASX:MKG ASX:ALY TSXV:BYN TSX:GGA TSXV:SDR TSXV:ORX TSXV:ELO TSXV:LAB TSXV:PA XCNQ:PMC
Traded in Other Exchanges
N/A
Address
9449 Priority Way West Drive, Suite 140, Indianapolis, IN, USA, 46240
Website
American Sierra Gold Corp is a precious metal mineral acquisition, exploration, and development company. It is focused on the exploration of gold and silver.
Executives
Larry Regis director, 10 percent owner, officer: CEO 9555 SW ALLEN BLVD. #36, BEAVERTON OR 97005
Gary Goodin director, 10 percent owner, officer: COO 3243 SMOKEY RIDGE CT, CARMEL IN 46033
Vittal Karra director, 10 percent owner, officer: Treasurer 4480 HASTINGS DRIVE, CUMMING GA 30041
G.x.k. Ventures, Inc. 10 percent owner 302 255 WEST FIRST STREET, NORTH VANCOUVER A1 V7M 3G8
Mmc Mines, Inc. 10 percent owner 302 255 WEST FIRST STREET, NORTH VANCOUVER A1 V7M 3G8
James Vandeberg director 10710 NE 10TH STREET #1307, BELLEVUE WA 98004
Wayne Gruden director, officer: President; Treasurer C/O AMERICAN SIERRA GOLD CORP., 200 S. VIRGINIA STREET, 8TH FLOOR, RENO NV 89501
George Daschko other: Former 10% Owner, Dir. & Pres. 7456 BARRYMORE DRIVE, DELTA A1 00000
Dmitriy Ruzhytskiy director, 10 percent owner 4(A) SIMONENKO STREET, APT 21, VYSHGOROD KYIVSKA RE 2H 07300
Alexander Hornostai director, 10 percent owner, officer: SECRETARY AND TREASURER 108 9B KOSHYTSYA STREET, KIEV 2H 00000

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