Amprius Technologies (Amprius Technologies) Predictability Rank

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What is Amprius Technologies Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Amprius Technologies Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Amprius Technologies (Amprius Technologies) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Industrials » Industrial Products » Amprius Technologies Inc (NYSE:AMPX) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

1180 Page Avenue, Fremont, CA, USA, 94538

Website

https://www.amprius.com

Amprius Technologies Inc is engaged in the production of silicon anodes for high energy density lithium-ion batteries. The company's batteries are primarily used for existing and emerging aviation applications, including unmanned aerial systems, such as drones and high-altitude pseudo satellites.

Executives

Jonathan Bornstein	officer: Chief Operating Officer	1180 PAGE AVENUE, FREMONT CA 94538
Amprius, Inc.	10 percent owner	1180 PAGE AVENUE, FREMONT CA 94538
Justin E Mirro	director, 10 percent owner, officer: See Remarks	40300 TRADITIONS DRIVE, NORTHVILLE MI 48168
Stefan Constantin Ionel	officer: Chief Technology Officer	1180 PAGE AVENUE, FREMONT CA 94538
Mary Gustanski	director	C/O DELPHI TECHNOLOGIES PLC, COURTENEY ROAD HOATH WAY, GILLINGHAM, KENT X0 X0 ME8 0RU
Kathleen A Bayless	director	1251 MCKAY DRIVE, SAN JOSE CA 95131
Donald R Dixon	director	400 S EL CAMINO REAL SUITE 1050, SAN MATEO CA 94402
Sandra Wallach	officer: Chief Financial Officer	C/O IDENTIV,INC.,2201 WALNUT AVENUE,, SUITE 310, FREMONT CA 94538
Steven Chu	director	NVIDIA CORPORATION, 2701 SAN TOMAS EXPRESSWAY, SANTA CLARA CA 95050
Kang Sun	director, officer: See Remarks	1180 PAGE AVENUE, FREMONT CA 94538
Wen Hsuan Hsieh	director	C/O DESKTOP METAL, INC., 63 THIRD AVENUE, BURLINGTON MA 01803
Anders Pettersson	director	CARITASGATAN 23A, LIMHAMN V7 216 18
Dieter Zetsche	officer: Vice Chairman and President	ROSENGARTENSTR. 48, STUTTGART 2M 70184
Kensington Capital Sponsor Iv Llc	10 percent owner	1400 OLD COUNTRY ROAD, SUITE 301, WESTBURY NY 11590
Nicole Nason	director	17 PIONEER MILL WAY, ALEXANDRIA VA 22314