AMST (Amesite) Predictability Rank

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What is Amesite Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Amesite Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Amesite Predictability Rank Related Terms

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Amesite Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Technology » Software » Amesite Inc (NAS:AMST) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

607 Shelby Street, Suite 700, PMB 214, Detroit, MI, USA, 48226

Website

https://www.amesite.com

Amesite Inc is an artificial intelligence-driven platform and course designer that rapidly provides customized, high-performance and scalable online products for schools and businesses. The company helps educational institutions and businesses improve learning as their technology partner, delivering a disruptive technology driven by AI and offers a constellation of services that help partners implement new programs, and improve existing ones. Its customers are Enterprises, universities, and K-12 schools.

Executives

Gilbert S Omenn	director	AMGEN INC., ONE AMGEN CENTER DRIVE, THOUSAND OAKS CA 91320-1799
Ann Marie Sastry	director, officer: Chief Executive Officer	C/O LOLA ONE ACQUISITION CORPORATION, 2255 GLADES ROAD, SUITE 324A, BOCA RATON FL 33431
George Parmer	director	102 WEST BAKER STREET, PLANT CITY FL 33563
J Michael Losh	director	H.B. FULLER COMPANY, P.O. BOX 64683, ST. PAUL MN 55164-0683
Richard Ogawa	director	2953 BUNKER HILL LANE, SUITE 300, SANTA CLARA CA 95054
Anthony M. Barkett	director	C/O LOLA ONE ACQUISITION CORPORATION, 2255 GLADES ROAD, SUITE 324A, BOCA RATON FL 33431
Sherrie Farrell	officer: Chief Financial Officer	607 SHELBY STREET, SUITE 700, PMB 214, DETROIT MI 48226
Mark Corrao	officer: Chief Financial Officer	531 AIRPORT NORTH OFFICE PARK, FORT WAYNE IN 46825
Mark N. Tompkins	10 percent owner	APP. 1, VIA GUIDINO 23, LUGANO-PARADISO V8 6900
Matthew Kern	officer: Chief Financial Officer	607 SHELBY STREET, SUITE 700 PMB 214, DETROIT MI 48226
Richard D. Dibartolomeo	officer: Chief Financial Officer	C/O AMESITE INC., 205 EAST WASHINGTON STREET, SUITE B, ANN ARBOR MI 48104
Barbie Brewer	director	205 EAST WASHINGTON STREET, SUITE B, ANN ARBOR MI 48104