Anchor Bancorp (Anchor Bancorp) Predictability Rank

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What is Anchor Bancorp Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Anchor Bancorp Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Anchor Bancorp (Anchor Bancorp) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Financial Services » Banks » Anchor Bancorp (NAS:ANCB) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

Website

http://www.anchornetbank.com

Anchor Bancorp is a bank holding company for Anchor Bank. Bancorp operates through its holding Anchor Bank which is a community-based savings bank that serves Western Washington through its full-service banking offices (including one Wal-Mart in-store location) located within Grays Harbor, Thurston, Lewis, Pierce and Mason counties, and one loan production office located in King County, Washington. Bancorp's business is to attract deposits from the public and utilize those deposits to originate loans. It offers commercial and multi-family real estate loans and also offers loans for the construction of one-to-four family residences, as well as consumer loans.

Executives

Matthew F Moran	officer: Exec VP, CCO of the Bank	C/O SOUND FINANCIAL INC, 2005 FIFTH AVENUE 2ND FLOOR, SEATTLE WA 98121
Gordon Sheridan Stephenson	director	C/O ZILLOW GROUP, INC., 1301 SECOND AVENUE, FLOOR 31, SEATTLE WA 98101

Anchor Bancorp (Anchor Bancorp) Headlines

From GuruFocus

Anchor Bancorp (ANCB) CEO Jerald L Shaw buys 15,000 Shares

By GuruFocus Research GuruFocus Editor • 01-27-2011

Anchor Bancorp (ANCB) Vice Chairman of the Board Douglas A Kay buys 1,000 Shares

By GuruFocus Research GuruFocus Editor • 01-27-2011

Legendary Value Investor Michael Price's New 13-f Filing

By Cody Eustice CodyEustice • 02-18-2015

SHAREHOLDER ALERT: Monteverde & Associates PC Announces An Investigation Of Anchor Bancorp - ANCB

By PRNewswire PRNewswire • 09-12-2018

FS Bancorp, Inc. Completes Merger With Anchor Bancorp

By Marketwired Marketwired • 11-16-2018

Anchor Bancorp (ANCB) Chairman of the Board Robert D Ruecker buys 15,500 Shares

By GuruFocus Research GuruFocus Editor • 01-27-2011