What is AngioDynamics Predictability Rank?
1 (5)
Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:
1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.
It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.
GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.
AngioDynamics Predictability Rank Calculation
In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.
Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:
Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.
The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.
Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns
| Predictables | Non-Predictable | All stocks |
|---|
| Total Number of stocks | 570 | 1833 | 2403 |
| Total Lost Money | 61 | 830 | 891 |
| Total Lost More Than 50% | 18 | 412 | 430 |
| Total Lost More Than 90% | 4 | 86 | 90 |
| Average Gain | 260.6% | 100.0% | 138.1% |
| Median Gain | 150.0% | 13.0% | 39.0% |
| Maximum Gain | 2852.0% | 11483.0% | 11483.0% |
| Maximum Loss | -100.0% | -100.0% | -100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain | 12.7% | 6.7% | 8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain | 8.9% | 1.1% | 3.1% |
For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.
| Predictability Rank | 5-Star | 4.5-Star | 4-Star | 3.5-Star | 3-Star | 2.5-Star | 2-Star | 1-Star (non-predictable) | Average among all |
|---|
| % Out of All 2403 Stocks |
3.3% |
2.9% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
3.3% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
76.3% |
100% |
| % that are in Loss (10y) |
3% |
10% |
8% |
9% |
11% |
18% |
16% |
45% |
37% |
| Average Gain (10y) |
364.6% |
330.9% |
278.0% |
235.1% |
243.5% |
227.8% |
154.8% |
100.0% |
138.1% |
| Median Gain (10y) |
238.5% |
193.5% |
171.0% |
159.0% |
132.5% |
113.5% |
87.0% |
13.0% |
39.0% |
| Maximum Gainer |
2228.0% |
2547.0% |
2452.0% |
2852.0% |
2432.0% |
1892.0% |
1807.0% |
11483.0% |
11483.0% |
| Maximum Loser |
-82.0% |
-53.0% |
-67.0% |
-100.0% |
-83.0% |
-100.0% |
-78.0% |
-100.0% |
-100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain |
15.4% |
14.6% |
13.2% |
12.0% |
12.2% |
11.7% |
9.1% |
6.7% |
8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain |
12.1% |
10.6% |
9.8% |
9.3% |
8.2% |
7.3% |
6.0% |
1.1% |
3.1% |
For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank
Also read:
Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety
AngioDynamics Business Description
Traded in Other Exchanges
Address
14 Plaza Drive, Latham, NY, USA, 12110
AngioDynamics Inc designs manufactures, and sells medical, surgical, and diagnostic devices used by professional healthcare providers for the treatment of peripheral vascular disease and for use in oncology and surgical settings. Geographically, the company derives a majority of its revenue from the United States from sale of Med Tech and Med Device.
Executives
| Warren Jr Nighan |
officer: SVP Quality and Regulatory |
ANGIODYNAMICS, INC., 14 PLAZA DRIVE, LATHAM NY 12110 |
| Stephen A Trowbridge |
officer: SVP and General Counsel |
14 PLAZA DRIVE, LATHAM NY 120110 |
| James C Clemmer |
director, officer: President and CEO |
COVIDIEN PLC, 15 HAMPSHIRE STREET, MANSFIELD MA 02048 |
| Lorinda Burgess |
director |
22 WEST FRONTAG ROAD, NORTHBROOK IL 60093 |
| Karen A Licitra |
director |
C/O SI-BONE, INC., 471 EL CAMINO REAL, SUITE 101, SANTA CLARA CA 95050 |
| Michael E Tarnoff |
director |
C/O ANGIODYNAMICS, INC., 14 PLAZA DRIVE, LATHAM NY 12110 |
| Scott Centea |
officer: SVP/GM, VIT |
C/O ANGIODYNAMICS, INC., 14 PLAZA DRIVE, LATHAM NY 12110 |
| Dave Helsel |
officer: SVP Global Operations and R&D |
400 WOOD ROAD, BRAINTREE MA 02184 |
| Laura Piccinini |
officer: SVP International |
C/O ANGIODYNAMICS INC., 14 PLAZA DRIVE, LATHAM NY 12110 |
| Wesley Johnson |
director |
|
| Chad Thomas Campbell |
officer: SVP/GM, Vascular Access |
140 POKANOKET PATH, WRENTHAM MA 02093 |
| Richard C Rosenzweig |
officer: SVP and General Counsel |
C/O DENTSPLY SIRONA INC., 13320 BALLANTYNE CORPORATE PLACE, CHARLOTTE NC 28277 |
| Kevin J Gould |
director |
247 WASHINGTON STREET, DUXBURY MA 02332 |
| Brent J. Boucher |
officer: SVP and GM of Oncology |
14 PLAZA DRIVE, LATHAM NY 12110 |
| Michael Greiner |
officer: EVP and CFO |
C/O VISTAPRINT, 95 HAYDEN AVENUE, LEXINGTON MA 02421 |
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