Anthera Pharmaceuticals (Anthera Pharmaceuticals) Predictability Rank

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What is Anthera Pharmaceuticals Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Anthera Pharmaceuticals Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Anthera Pharmaceuticals Predictability Rank Related Terms

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Anthera Pharmaceuticals (Anthera Pharmaceuticals) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Healthcare » Biotechnology » Anthera Pharmaceuticals Inc (OTCPK:ANTH) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

25801 Industrial Boulevard, Suite B, Hayward, CA, USA, 94545

Website

http://www.anthera.com

Anthera Pharmaceuticals Inc is a biopharmaceutical company that focuses on developing and commercializing products to treat serious diseases associated with inflammation, including cardiovascular and autoimmune diseases. The company currently has one Phase 3-ready clinical program and two Phase 2 clinical programs. It was established in 2004.

Executives

Christopher S Henney	director	10505 ROSELLE STREET, SAN DIEGO CA 92121
Shanahan William R Jr	officer: Chief Medical Officer	10301 STELLA LINK HOUSTON TX 77025
Brian Mueller	director	C/O BIOMARIN PHARMACEUTICAL INC., 105 DIGITAL DRIVE, NOVATO CA 94949
Paul F Truex	director	PENINSULA PHARMACEUTICALS, INC., 1751 HARBOR BAY PARKWAY, ALAMEDA CA 94502
Charles V Olson	officer: Chief Technology Officer	25801 INDUSTRIAL BLVD., SUITE B, HAYWARD CA 94545
Klara Dickinson	officer: Chief Regulatory Officer	C/O CYMABAY THERAPEUTICS, INC., 7575 GATEWAY BLVD., SUITE 110, NEWARK CA 94560
Steven B Engle	director	C/O XOMA LTD., 2910 SEVENTH STREET, BERKELEY CA 94710
James Pennington	officer: Interim Chief Medical Officer	25801 INDUSTRIAL BLVD, SUITE B, HAYWARD CA 94545
Hislop Colin	officer: Chief Medical Officer	C/O PENINSULA PHARMACEUTICALS, INC., 1751 HARBOR BAY PARKWAY, ALAMEDA CA 94502
Sanford S Zweifach	director	21720 23RD DRIVE SE, SUITE 150, BOTHELL WA 98021
Daniel K Spiegelman	director	MYRIAD GENETICS, 320 WAKARA WAY, SALT LAKE CITY UT 84003
Christopher P. Lowe	officer: CFO and Chief Business Officer	2511 N LOOP 1604,, SUITE 204, SAN ANTONIO TX 78258
James Healy	director	3000 SAND HILL ROAD, 4-250, MENLO PARK CA 94025
Orbimed Capital Gp Iv Llc	director	601 LEXINGTON AVENUE, 54TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10022
Samuel D Isaly	director	601 LEXINGTON AVENUE, 54TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10022

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