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American Oncology Network (American Oncology Network) Predictability Rank


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What is American Oncology Network Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

American Oncology Network Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

PredictablesNon-PredictableAll stocks
Total Number of stocks57018332403
Total Lost Money61830891
Total Lost More Than 50%18412430
Total Lost More Than 90%48690
Average Gain260.6%100.0%138.1%
Median Gain150.0%13.0%39.0%
Maximum Gain2852.0%11483.0%11483.0%
Maximum Loss-100.0%-100.0%-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain12.7%6.7%8.4%
Annualized Median Gain8.9%1.1%3.1%


















For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank5-Star4.5-Star4-Star3.5-Star3-Star2.5-Star2-Star1-Star (non-predictable)Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks 3.3% 2.9% 3.7% 3.3% 3.3% 3.7% 3.3% 76.3% 100%
% that are in Loss (10y) 3% 10% 8% 9% 11% 18% 16% 45% 37%
Average Gain (10y) 364.6% 330.9% 278.0% 235.1% 243.5% 227.8% 154.8% 100.0% 138.1%
Median Gain (10y) 238.5% 193.5% 171.0% 159.0% 132.5% 113.5% 87.0% 13.0% 39.0%
Maximum Gainer 2228.0% 2547.0% 2452.0% 2852.0% 2432.0% 1892.0% 1807.0% 11483.0% 11483.0%
Maximum Loser -82.0% -53.0% -67.0% -100.0% -83.0% -100.0% -78.0% -100.0% -100.0%
Annualized Average Gain 15.4% 14.6% 13.2% 12.0% 12.2% 11.7% 9.1% 6.7% 8.4%
Annualized Median Gain 12.1% 10.6% 9.8% 9.3% 8.2% 7.3% 6.0% 1.1% 3.1%
















For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Also read:

Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety

American Oncology Network Predictability Rank Related Terms

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American Oncology Network (American Oncology Network) Business Description

Industry
GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Healthcare » Healthcare Providers & Services » American Oncology Network Inc (OTCPK:AONC) » Definitions » Predictability Rank
Comparable Companies
PIII TOI BTMD AVAH CYH JYNT PNTG SNDA AIRS CCM HCA SAU:4013 SZSE:300015 HKSE:06618 XTER:FRE BKK:BDMS XKLS:5225 BSP:RDOR3 XTER:FME UHS
Traded in Other Exchanges
N/A
Address
10485 NE 6th Street, Unit 3930, Bellevue, WA, USA, 98004
Website
https://www.aoncology.com
American Oncology Network Inc Formerly American Oncology Network LLC is an alliance of physicians and seasoned healthcare leaders who provide comprehensive oncology services through 24 oncology practices located in Arkansas, Louisiana, Indiana, Virginia, Ohio, Nevada, Iowa, Missouri, Washington, North Carolina, Michigan, Maryland, South Carolina, Arizona, and Georgia. The Company also provides expertise in drug procurement and payor contracting, along with practice diversification through centralized laboratory and pathology services, as well as specialty pharmacy services.
Executives
Saba Capital Management, L.p. 10 percent owner 405 LEXINGTON AVENUE, 58TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10174
Boaz Weinstein 10 percent owner 405 LEXINGTON AVENUE, 58TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10174
David H Gould officer: Chief Financial Officer 7370 COLLEGE PARKWAY, SUITE 207, FORT MEYERS FL 33907
Erica Mallon officer: General Counsel 14543 GLOBAL PARKWAY, SUITE 110, FORT MEYERS FL 33913
Shalin Shah director 3402 W DR. MARTIN LUTHER KING JR. BLVD, TAMPA FL 33607
Vipul M Patel director 11704 SE 15TH CIRCLE, OCALA FL 34480
Todd Schonherz director, officer: Chief Executive Officer 14543 GLOBAL PARKWAY, 2ND FLOOR, FORT MEYERS FL 33913
Stephen Divers director, officer: Chief Medical Officer 133 HARMONY PARK CIRCLE, HOT SPRINGS AZ 71913
Vance Wright-browne director 22395 EDGEWATER DRIVE, PORT CHARLOTTE FL 33980
James Stith director ONE LETTERMAN DRIVE, CM200, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94129
Aea Growth Equity Fund Lp 10 percent owner 520 MADISON AVE, 40TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10022
Aea Growth Equity Fund (parallel) Lp 10 percent owner 520 MADISON AVE, 40TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10022
Ravi Yang Sarin director C/O ARES MANAGEMENT LLC, 2000 AVENUE OF THE STARS, 12TH FLOOR, LOS ANGELES CA 90067
Brian R Hoesterey 10 percent owner C/O AEA INVESTORS LP, 666 FIFTH AVENUE, 36TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10103
Kevin Nazemi director, officer: Chief Executive Officer 10485 NE 6TH ST, UNIT 3930, BELLEVUE WA 98004