AOS (A.O. Smith) Predictability Rank

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What is A.O. Smith Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

A.O. Smith Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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A.O. Smith Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Industrials » Industrial Products » A.O. Smith Corp (NYSE:AOS) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

AOS:Mexico 0L7A:UK 3SM:Germany 3SM:Germany

Address

11270 West Park Place, Suite 170, Milwaukee, WI, USA, 53224

Website

https://www.aosmith.com

A.O. Smith manufactures a broad lineup of water heaters, boilers, and water treatment products. The company has two reporting segments: North America (75% of sales) and rest of world (25% of sales). A.O. Smith is the leading manufacturer of water heaters in North America for the residential and commercial markets, with approximately 37% and 54% market share, respectively. Residential water heaters account for Most of North American sales and are distributed equally through wholesale and retail channels. Most of A.O. Smith's international revenue is from China, a market the company entered during the mid-1990s.

Executives

Samuel M. Carver	officer: SVP - Global Operations	A. O. SMITH CORPORATION, 44 VANTAGE WAY, NASHVILLE TN 37228
Douglas Samuel Karge	officer: SVP - President NA Water Treat	A. O. SMITH CORPORATION, 11270 WEST PARK PLACE, MILWAUKEE WI 53224
Robert J Heideman	officer: Senior Vice President Corp Tec	A. O. SMITH CORPORATE TECHNOLOGY CENTER, 12100 WEST PARK PLACE, MILWAUKEE WI 53224
Ronald D Brown	director	2090 FLORENCE AVENUE, CINCINNATI OH 45206
Ajita G Rajendra	officer: President, A. O. Smith Water P	A. O. SMITH WATER PRODUCTS COMPANY, 500 LINDAHL PARKWAY, ASHLAND CITY TN 37015
Idelle K Wolf	director
Mark D Smith	director
Mark A Petrarca	officer: Vice President - H.R. & P.A.	A. O. SMITH CORPORATION, 11270 WEST PARK PLACE, MILWAUKEE WI 53224
James F Stern	officer: Exec VP, General Counsel & Sec	A. O. SMITH CORPORATION, 11270 WEST PARK PLACE, MILWAUKEE WI 53224
Kevin J. Wheeler	officer: Senior VP and President & GM	A. O. SMITH CORPORATION, 500 TENNESSEE WALTZ PARKWAY, ASHLAND CITY TN 37015
Benjamin A Otchere	officer: Vice President and Controller	A. O. SMITH CORPORATION, 11270 WEST PARK PLACE, MILWAUKEE WI 53224
Michael M Larsen	director	ILLINOIS TOOL WORKS INC., 155 HARLEM AVE., GLENVIEW IL 60025
Daniel L Kempken	officer: Vice President and Controller	A. O. SMITH CORPORATION, 11270 WEST PARK PLACE, MILWAUKEE WI 53224
Parag Kulkarni	officer: SVP - Int'l; President India	A. O. SMITH INDIA WATER PRODUCTS PRIVATE, #300, PHASE II, KIADB INDUSTRIAL AREA, KARNATAKA K7 562112
Earl E. Exum	director	A. O. SMITH CORPORATION, 11270 WEST PARK PLACE, MILWAUKEE WI 53224