APOG (Apogee Enterprises) Predictability Rank

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What is Apogee Enterprises Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Apogee Enterprises Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Apogee Enterprises Predictability Rank Related Terms

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Apogee Enterprises Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Industrials » Construction » Apogee Enterprises Inc (NAS:APOG) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

4400 West 78th Street, Suite 520, Minneapolis, MN, USA, 55435

Website

https://www.apog.com

Apogee Enterprises Inc provider of architectural products and services for enclosing buildings, and high-performance glass and acrylic products used in applications for preservation, protection, and enhanced viewing. Its segments are Architectural Framing Systems; Architectural Glass; Architectural Services and Large-Scale Optical Technologies (LSO). It generates maximum revenue from the Architectural Framing Systems segment. The Architectural Framing Systems segment designs, engineers, fabricates, and finishes the aluminum frames used in customized aluminum and glass windows, curtainwall, storefront, and entrance systems comprising the outside skin and entrances of commercial, institutional, and others. Geographically, it derives a majority of its revenue from the United States.

Executives

Brent C Jewell	officer: Sr VP Business Dev & Strategy	4400 WEST 78TH STREET, SUITE 520, MINNEAPOLIS MN 55435
Ty R Silberhorn	director, officer: Chief Executive Officer & Pres	3M COMPANY OFFICE OF GENERAL COUNSEL, 3M CENTER, ST PAUL MN 55144-1000
Lloyd Emerson Johnson	director	16737 NEW PROVIDENCE LANE, CHARLOTTE NC 28277
Curtis John Dobler	officer: SVP & CHRO	4400 WEST 78TH STREET, SUITE 520, MINNEAPOLIS MN 55435
Herbert K Parker	director	38505 WOODWARD AVENUE, SUITE 200, BLOOMFIELD HILLS MI 48304
Troy R Johnson	officer: Pres, Architectural Services	C/O APOGEE ENTERPRISES, INC., 4400 WEST 78TH STREET, SUITE 520, MINNEAPOLIS MN 55435
Meghan Marie Elliott	officer: Vice Pres, Gen Counsel, Secy	C/O APOGEE ENTERPRISES, INC., 4400 WEST 78TH STREET, SUITE 520, MINNEAPOLIS MN 55435
Jane Marie Boyce	officer: President, Large Scale Optical	4400 W 78TH STREET, SUITE 520, MINNEAPOLIS MN 55435
Matthew J Osberg	officer: EVP and CFO	1 HELEN OF TROY PLAZA, EL PASO TX 79912
Gary R Johnson	officer: Treasurer & Vice President
Mark Richard Augdahl	officer: VP, Finance & Corp Controller	4400 WEST 78TH STREET, SUITE 520, MINNEAPOLIS MN 55435
Nicholas Charles Longman	officer: Pres, Architectural Glass	C/O APOGEE ENTERPRISES, INC., 4400 WEST 78TH STREET, SUITE 520, MINNEAPOLIS MN 55435
Bernard P Aldrich	director	7725 WASHINGTON AVENUE SOUTH, MINNEAPOLIS MN 55439
Joseph F. Puishys	director, officer: Chief Executive Officer & Pres	4400 WEST 78TH STREET, SUITE 520, MINNEAPOLIS MN 55435
Maureen Ann Hayes	officer: Chief Information Officer	4400 WEST 78TH STREET, SUITE 520, MINNEAPOLIS MN 55435