APXIF (APx Acquisition I) Predictability Rank

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What is APx Acquisition I Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

APx Acquisition I Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

APx Acquisition I Predictability Rank Related Terms

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APx Acquisition I Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Financial Services » Diversified Financial Services » APx Acquisition Corp I (OTCPK:APXIF) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

714 Westview Avenue, Nashville, TN, USA, 32705

Website

https://www.apxcap.mx

APx Acquisition Corp I is a blank check company.

Executives

David Proman	director	C/O FIR TREE INC., 55 WEST 46TH STREET, 29TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10036
Diego Dayenoff	director	80 RIVERSIDE BOULEVARD 1F, NEW YORK NY 10069
Alfredo Vara Alonso	director	JUAN SALADOR AGRAZ 65 P 9, CONTADERO CUAJIMALPA DE MORE, MEXICO CITY O5 05370
Daniel Braatz	director, officer: Chief Executive Officer	JUAN SALVADOR AGRAZ 65, CONTADERO, CUAJIMALPA DE MORELOS, MEXICO CITY O5 05370
Apx Cap Sponsor Group I, Llc	10 percent owner	PO BOX 309, UGLAND HOUSE, GRAND CAYMAN E9 KYL-1104
Angel Losada Moreno	director	CALLE EJERCITO NAC NO 769 TORRE B PISO, 8 COLONIA GRANA DELEGACION MIGUEL HIDALG, CIUDAD DE MEXICO O5 CP 11520
Xavier Martinez	officer: Chief Financial Officer	JUAN SALVADOR AGRAZ 65 CONTADERO, CUAJIMALPA DE MORELOS, MEXICO CITY O5 05370
Apx Cap Holdings I, Llc	10 percent owner	JUAN SALVADOR AGRAZ 65, CONTADERO, CUAJIMALPA DE MORELOS, MEXICO CITY O5 05370