Aravive (Aravive) Predictability Rank

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What is Aravive Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Aravive Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Aravive (Aravive) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Healthcare » Biotechnology » Aravive Inc (NAS:ARAV) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

VE11:Germany VE11:Germany

Address

3730 Kirby Drive, River Oaks Tower, Suite 1200, Houston, TX, USA, 77098

Website

https://www.aravive.com

Aravive Inc is a clinical-stage biopharmaceutical company. It focuses on developing treatments designed to halt the progression of life-threatening diseases, including cancer and fibrosis. The company pipeline product Batiraxcept (formerly AVB-500) which is an ultra-high affinity decoy protein that binds to GAS6 and thereby prevents AXL signaling to inhibit metastasis and tumor growth and restore sensitivity to anti-cancer agents. Batiraxcept is currently being evaluated in multiple clinical trials.

Executives

Maria Carolina Petrini	officer: Chief Commercial Officer	RIVER OAKS TOWER, 3730 KIRBY DRIVE, SUITE 1200, HOUSTON TX 77098
Robert B. Geller	officer: Chief Medical Officer	RIVER OAKS TOWER, 3730 KIRBY DRIVE, SUITE 1200, HOUSTON TX 77098
Rudy Howard	officer: Chief Financial Officer	322 WINDCHASE LANE, WILMINGTON NC 28409
Leonard Scott Dove	officer: Chief Operating Officer	RIVER OAKS TOWER, 3730 KIRBY DRIVE, SUITE 1200, HOUSTON TX 77098
Amato Giaccia	director, 10 percent owner	C/O VERSARTIS, INC., 1020 MARSH ROAD, MENLO PARK CA 94025
Gail Frances Mcintyre	officer: Chief Scientific Officer	C/O FURIEX PHARMACEUTICALS, INC., 3900 PARAMOUNT PARKWAY, SUITE 150, MORRISVILLE NC 27560
John Hohneker	director	C/O DIMENSION THERAPEUTICS, INC., 840 MEMORIAL DRIVE 4TH FLOOR, CAMBRIDGE MA 02139
Sigurd Kirk	director	225 SUMMIT AVENUE, MONTVALE NJ 07645
Peter Tai-ching Ho	director	C/O EPIZYME, INC., 400 TECHNOLOGY SQUARE, 4TH FLOOR, CAMBRIDGE MA 02139
Vinay Shah	officer: Chief Financial Officer	C/O VERSARTIS, INC., 1020 MARSH ROAD, MENLO PARK CA 94025
Reshma Rangwala	officer: Chief Medical Officer	RIVER OAKS TOWER, 3730 KIRBY DRIVE, SUITE 1200, HOUSTON TX 77098
Michael W Rogers	director	C/O KERYX BIOPHARMACEUTICALS INC, ONE MARINA PARK DRIVE, BOSTON MA 02210
Eshelman Ventures, Llc	director	319 N. 3RD STREET, SUITE 301, WILMINGTON NC 28401
Fredric N Eshelman	director	PPD INC, 929 NORTH FRONT STREET, WILMINGTON NC 28401
Rekha Hemrajani	director, officer: President and CEO	3928 POINT EDEN WAY, HAYWARD CA 94545