Ares Management (Ares Management) Predictability Rank

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What is Ares Management Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Ares Management Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Ares Management (Ares Management) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Financial Services » Asset Management » Ares Management Corp (NYSE:ARES) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

0QN:Germany

Address

2000 Avenue of the Stars, 12th Floor, Los Angeles, CA, USA, 90067

Website

https://www.aresmgmt.com

Ares Management Corp is an asset management company based in the United States. It offers investors investment-related advice and strategies for capital growth. The company's operating segments include Credit Group, Private Equity Group, Real Estate Group, Secondaries Group, and Strategic Initiatives. Its Credit Group generates maximum revenue, and manages credit strategies across the liquid and illiquid spectrum. Private Equity Group manages investment strategies categorized as corporate private equity, infrastructure and power, and special opportunities, Real Estate Group is engaged in managing real estate equity and debt strategies. The Secondary Solutions Group invests in secondary markets across a range of asset class including private equity, real estate, and infrastructure.

Executives

Michael J Arougheti	director, officer: Co-Founder & President	2000 AVENUE OF THE STARS, 12TH FLOOR, LOS ANGELES CA 90067
Bennett Rosenthal	director, officer: Co-Founder & Senior Partner	2000 AVENUE OF THE STARS, 12TH FLOOR, LOS ANGELES CA 90067
David B Kaplan	director, officer: Co-Founder & Senior Partner	1999 AVENUE OF THE STARS, SUITE 1900, LOS ANGELES CA 90067
Ryan Berry	officer: Ptr, Chief Mktg. & Strat. Off.	C/O ARES MANAGEMENT LLC, 2000 AVENUE OF THE STARS, 12TH FLOOR, LOS ANGELES CA 90067
R. Kipp Deveer	officer: Partner	245 PARK AVENUE, 44TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10167
Ashish Bhutani	director
Judy D. Olian	director	2000 AVENUE OF THE STARS 12TH FL, LOS ANGELES CA 90067
Aghili Naseem Sagati	officer: General Counsel	2000 AVENUE OF THE STARS, LOS ANGELES CA 90067
Bush Antoinette Cook	director	NORTHPOINT TECHNOLOGY, 444 N CAPITOL STREET NW STE 645, WASHINGTON DC 20001
Antony P Ressler	director, officer: Chairman, CEO, Co-Founder	1999 AVENUE OF THE STARS, SUITE 1900, LOS ANGELES CA 90067
Eileen Naughton	director	C/O GOOGLE INC., 76 NINTH AVENUE, 4TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10011
Ares Management Corp	officer: Chief Financial Officer	2000 AVE OF THE STARS, 12TH FLOOR, LOS ANGELES CA 90067
Jarrod Phillips	officer: Chief Financial Officer	C/O ARES MANAGEMENT LLC, 245 PARK AVENUE, 42ND FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 100167
Michael R Mcferran	officer: EVP, CFO & Treasurer	555 CALIFORNIA STREET, 50TH FLOOR, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94104
Michael D Weiner	officer: EVP, CLO & Secretary	10250 CONSTELLATION BLVD, SUITE 2900, LOS ANGELES CA 90067-6229