Arq (ARQ) Predictability Rank

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What is Arq Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Arq Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Arq Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Industrials » Industrial Products » Arq Inc (NAS:ARQ) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

OXQ1:Germany

Address

8051 E. Maplewood Avenue, Suite 210, Greenwood Village, CO, USA, 80111

Website

https://www.arq.com

Arq Inc is an environmental technology company principally engaged in the sale of consumable air, water, and soil treatment solutions including activated carbon (AC) and chemical technologies. The company manufactures and sells activated carbon and other chemicals used to capture and remove contaminants for the coal-fired power generation, industrial, municipal water and air, water and soil treatment and remediation markets. Some of the products in its portfolio are Powdered Activated Carbon, Granula Activated Carbon, and Colloidal Carbon Product among others.

Executives

Richard Campbell-breeden	director	30A BROOK STREET, LONDON X0 W1K 5DJ
Jeremy Blank	director	6446 DREXEL AVENUE, LOS ANGELES CA 90048
Robert E. Rasmus	director, officer: Chief Executive Officer	THREE RIVERWAY, SUITE 1350, HOUSTON TX 77056
Joseph M Wong	officer: Chief Technology Officer	640 PLAZA DRIVE, SUITE 270, C/O ADVANCED EMISSIONS SOLUTIONS, INC., HIGHLANDS RANCH CO 80129
Jeremy Williamson	officer: Chief Operating Officer	8051 E. MAPLEWOOD AVE, SUITE 210, GREENWOOD VILLAGE CO 80111
Laurie Bergman	director	460 NORTH GULPH ROAD, KING OF PRUSSIA PA 19406
Arq Ltd	10 percent owner	28-30 THE PARADE, ST. HELIER Y9 JE1 1EQ
Julian Alexander Mcintyre	director	30A BROOK STREET, LONDON X0 W1K 5DJ
Morgan Fields	officer: VP of Accounting	890 SANTA CRUZ AVE., MENLO PARK CA 94025
Christine Bellino	officer: Chief Accounting Officer	8051 E. MAPLEWOOD AVE., SUITE 210, GREENWOOD VILLAGE CO 80111
Alta Fundamental Advisers Sp Llc	director	1500 BROADWAY, SUITE 704, NEW YORK NY 10036
Carol S Eicher	director	ROHM AND HAAS COMPANY, 100 INDEPENDENCE MALL WEST, PHILADELPHIA PA 19106
Brian Leen	director	640 PLAZA DRIVE, SUITE 270, C/O ADVANCED EMISSIONS SOLUTIONS, INC., HIGHLANDS RANCH CO 80129
Ron Hanson	officer: SVP of Operations of ADA-ES	9135 S RIDGELINE BLVD, SUITE 200, HIGHLANDS RANCH CO 80129
Theodore James Sanders	officer: General Counsel	640 PLAZA DRIVE, SUITE 270, HIGHLANDS RANCH CO 80129