What is ASA Gold And Precious Metals Predictability Rank?
Not Rated
Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:
1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.
It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.
GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.
ASA Gold And Precious Metals Predictability Rank Calculation
In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.
Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:
Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.
The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.
Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns
| Predictables | Non-Predictable | All stocks |
|---|
| Total Number of stocks | 570 | 1833 | 2403 |
| Total Lost Money | 61 | 830 | 891 |
| Total Lost More Than 50% | 18 | 412 | 430 |
| Total Lost More Than 90% | 4 | 86 | 90 |
| Average Gain | 260.6% | 100.0% | 138.1% |
| Median Gain | 150.0% | 13.0% | 39.0% |
| Maximum Gain | 2852.0% | 11483.0% | 11483.0% |
| Maximum Loss | -100.0% | -100.0% | -100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain | 12.7% | 6.7% | 8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain | 8.9% | 1.1% | 3.1% |
For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.
| Predictability Rank | 5-Star | 4.5-Star | 4-Star | 3.5-Star | 3-Star | 2.5-Star | 2-Star | 1-Star (non-predictable) | Average among all |
|---|
| % Out of All 2403 Stocks |
3.3% |
2.9% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
3.3% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
76.3% |
100% |
| % that are in Loss (10y) |
3% |
10% |
8% |
9% |
11% |
18% |
16% |
45% |
37% |
| Average Gain (10y) |
364.6% |
330.9% |
278.0% |
235.1% |
243.5% |
227.8% |
154.8% |
100.0% |
138.1% |
| Median Gain (10y) |
238.5% |
193.5% |
171.0% |
159.0% |
132.5% |
113.5% |
87.0% |
13.0% |
39.0% |
| Maximum Gainer |
2228.0% |
2547.0% |
2452.0% |
2852.0% |
2432.0% |
1892.0% |
1807.0% |
11483.0% |
11483.0% |
| Maximum Loser |
-82.0% |
-53.0% |
-67.0% |
-100.0% |
-83.0% |
-100.0% |
-78.0% |
-100.0% |
-100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain |
15.4% |
14.6% |
13.2% |
12.0% |
12.2% |
11.7% |
9.1% |
6.7% |
8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain |
12.1% |
10.6% |
9.8% |
9.3% |
8.2% |
7.3% |
6.0% |
1.1% |
3.1% |
For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank
Also read:
Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety
ASA Gold And Precious Metals Business Description
Traded in Other Exchanges
N/A
Address
Three Canal Plaza, Suite 600, Portland, ME, USA, 04101
ASA Gold And Precious Metals Ltd is a closed-end, non-diversified investment company. Its objective is to provide long-term capital appreciation through investing in companies engaged in the exploration for, development of projects, or mining of precious metals and minerals.
Executives
| Alexander Merk |
officer: COO |
44 MONTGOMERY STREET, #3730, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94104 |
| William Donovan |
director |
100 VISTA CIRCLE, APARTMENT 315, PITTSBURGH PA 15238 |
| Mary Joan Hoene |
director |
400 S EL CAMINO REAL, STE 710, SAN MATEO CA 94402 |
| Bruce D Hansen |
director |
1700 LINCOLN STREET, 28TH FLOOR, DENVER CO 80203 |
| Saba Capital Management, L.p. |
10 percent owner |
405 LEXINGTON AVENUE, 58TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10174 |
| Boaz Weinstein |
10 percent owner |
405 LEXINGTON AVENUE, 58TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10174 |
| Nancy J. Tyminski |
other: Deputy CCO |
3 CANAL PLAZA, SUITE 600, PORTLAND ME 04101 |
| James E Holman |
other: Analyst, Merk Investments, LLC |
THREE CANAL PLAZA, SUITE 600, PORTLAND ME 04101 |
| Peter Maletis |
officer: President |
44 MONTGOMERY STREET, #3730, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94104 |
| Anthony J. Artabane |
director |
4 LITTLE KINGS LANE, RYE BROOK NY 10573 |
| Zachary R Tackett |
officer: Secretary |
77 CONGRESS STREET, APT. #1, PORTLAND ME 04101 |
| Gino E Malaspina |
officer: Secretary |
3 CANAL PLAZA, SUITE 600, PORTLAND ME 04101 |
| Karen Shaw |
officer: PFO |
3 BUNKER HILL TERRACE, SCARBOROUGH ME 04074 |
| David J Christensen |
officer: Vice President - Investments |
400 S. EL CAMINO REAL, SUITE 710, SAN MATEO CA 94402 |
| Danielle Kulp |
officer: Secretary and Deputy CCO |
1409 KUTZ DRIVE, POTTSTOWN PA 19465 |
Quick Browse
Personalize
Premium Gurus 
Create New Portfolio
Portfolio Contest
ASA has been successfully added to your