What is Astra Energy Predictability Rank?
Not Rated
Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:
1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.
It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.
GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.
Astra Energy Predictability Rank Calculation
In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.
Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:
Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.
The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.
Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns
| Predictables | Non-Predictable | All stocks |
|---|
| Total Number of stocks | 570 | 1833 | 2403 |
| Total Lost Money | 61 | 830 | 891 |
| Total Lost More Than 50% | 18 | 412 | 430 |
| Total Lost More Than 90% | 4 | 86 | 90 |
| Average Gain | 260.6% | 100.0% | 138.1% |
| Median Gain | 150.0% | 13.0% | 39.0% |
| Maximum Gain | 2852.0% | 11483.0% | 11483.0% |
| Maximum Loss | -100.0% | -100.0% | -100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain | 12.7% | 6.7% | 8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain | 8.9% | 1.1% | 3.1% |
For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.
| Predictability Rank | 5-Star | 4.5-Star | 4-Star | 3.5-Star | 3-Star | 2.5-Star | 2-Star | 1-Star (non-predictable) | Average among all |
|---|
| % Out of All 2403 Stocks |
3.3% |
2.9% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
3.3% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
76.3% |
100% |
| % that are in Loss (10y) |
3% |
10% |
8% |
9% |
11% |
18% |
16% |
45% |
37% |
| Average Gain (10y) |
364.6% |
330.9% |
278.0% |
235.1% |
243.5% |
227.8% |
154.8% |
100.0% |
138.1% |
| Median Gain (10y) |
238.5% |
193.5% |
171.0% |
159.0% |
132.5% |
113.5% |
87.0% |
13.0% |
39.0% |
| Maximum Gainer |
2228.0% |
2547.0% |
2452.0% |
2852.0% |
2432.0% |
1892.0% |
1807.0% |
11483.0% |
11483.0% |
| Maximum Loser |
-82.0% |
-53.0% |
-67.0% |
-100.0% |
-83.0% |
-100.0% |
-78.0% |
-100.0% |
-100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain |
15.4% |
14.6% |
13.2% |
12.0% |
12.2% |
11.7% |
9.1% |
6.7% |
8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain |
12.1% |
10.6% |
9.8% |
9.3% |
8.2% |
7.3% |
6.0% |
1.1% |
3.1% |
For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank
Also read:
Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety
Astra Energy Business Description
Traded in Other Exchanges
N/A
Address
1100 Benjamin Franklin Drive, Unit 802, Sarasota, FL, USA, 34236
Astra Energy Inc is engaged in waste management industry and the electricity and power generation sectors with a focus on energy production from solar, waste conversion and clean burning fuels. The company invests in and develops renewable and clean energy projects in markets where demand is high, supply is limited and there is an opportunity to address other imminent market needs, while also cultivating a portfolio of intellectual property and licenses for renewable energy technology and generating projects to deploy that technology. Its projects include Zanzibar Clean and Renewable Energy Park, 350 Megawatt Combined Cycle Power Plant and others.
Executives
| Lisa Thompson |
officer: Corporate Secretary |
27-9045 WALNUT GROVE DRIVE, LANGLEY Z4 V1M2E1 |
| Rachel Boulds Cpa, Pllc |
officer: CFO |
6371 S. GLENOAKS STREET, MURRAY UT 84107 |
| Christopher Harold Wall |
director |
6301 COLLINS AVENUE, #2403, MIAMI BEACH FL 33141 |
| Javier H Idrovo |
director |
THE HERSHEY COMPANY, 100 CRYSTAL A DRIVE, HERSHEY X1 17033 |
| Vcaf Gp, Llc |
10 percent owner |
C/O VISION CAPITAL ADVISORS, 20 WEST 55TH STREET, 5TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10019 |
| Vision Capital Advantage Fund, L.p. |
10 percent owner |
C/O VISION CAPITAL ADVISORS, 20 WEST 55TH STREET, 5TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10019 |
| Vision Opportunity Master Fund, Ltd. |
10 percent owner |
C/O OGIER FIDUCIARY SERVICES (CAY) LTD., 88 NEXUS WAY, CAMANA BAY, GRAND CAYMAN E9 KY1-9007 |
| Vision Capital Advisors, Llc |
10 percent owner |
20 WEST 55TH STREET, 5TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10019 |
| Adam Benowitz |
10 percent owner |
C/O VISION CAPITAL ADVISORS, LLC, 20 WEST 55TH STREET, 5TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10019 |
| Ian Andrew Fraser |
director |
3056 WEST 2ND AVENUE, VANCOUVER A1 V6K 1K4 |
| Tri Point Capital Advisors Llc |
10 percent owner |
15245 SHADY GROVE RD, STE 400, ROCKVILLE MD 20850 |
| Robert Rooks |
director |
1912 PINE STREET, HUNTINGTON BEACH CA 92648 |
| Michael Robert Boswell |
director, officer: Acting Chief Financial Officer |
400 PROFESSIONAL DRIVE, SUITE 310, GAITHERSBURG MD 20879 |
| Darryl Horton |
director |
35368 EAGLE MOUNTAIN DRIVE, ABBOTSFORD A1 V3G2X7 |
| Robert Saunders |
10 percent owner, officer: Chief Executive Officer |
5552 WEST ISLAND HWY, QUALICUM BEACH A1 V9K2C8 |
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