Astra Space (Astra Space) Predictability Rank

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What is Astra Space Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Astra Space Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Astra Space (Astra Space) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Industrials » Aerospace & Defense » Astra Space Inc (NAS:ASTR) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

1900 Skyhawk Street, Alameda, CA, USA, 94501

Website

https://www.astra.com

Astra Space Inc is a technology company that provides space services, including satellite launch services and other space services, based on a proprietary, vertically integrated technology platform. It offers launch services, space products, and space services to achieve its space services platform model.

Executives

Scott Stanford	director, 10 percent owner	C/O PERSONALIZED BEAUTY DISCOVERY, INC., 201 BALDWIN AVENUE, SAN MATEO CA 94401
Axel Martinez	officer: Chief Financial Officer	418 STARVIEW DRIVE, DANVILLE CA 94526
Julie A Cullivan	director	17800 N 85TH ST, SCOTTSDALE AZ 85255
Chris Kemp	director, 10 percent owner, officer: See Remarks	1900 SKYHAWK STREET, ALAMEDA CA 94501
A/npc Holdings Llc	10 percent owner	6350 COURT STREET, EAST SYRACUSE NY 13057
Michael E Lehman	director
Michele Angelique Flournoy	director	3170 FAIRVIEW PARK DRIVE, FALLS CHURCH VA 22042
Craig Mccaw	director	EAGLE RIVER INC, 2300 CARILLON POINT, KIRKLAND WA 98033
Lisa Nelson	director	1920 4TH AVENUE #1111, SEATTLE WA 98101
Advance Publications, Inc	10 percent owner	950 FINGERBOARD ROAD, STATEN ISLAND NY 10305
Benjamin Lyon	officer: See Remarks	1900 SKYHAWK STREET, ALAMEDA CA 94501
Martin Attiq	officer: Chief Business Officer	1900 SKYHAWK STREET, ALAMEDA CA 94501
Adam London	director, 10 percent owner, officer: Chief Technology Officer	1900 SKYHAWK STREET, ALAMEDA CA 94501
Sherpaventures Fund Ii Gp, Llc	10 percent owner	505 HOWARD STREET, SUITE 201, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94105
Sherpaventures Fund Ii, Lp	10 percent owner	505 HOWARD STREET, SUITE 201, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94105