Fortescue (ASX:FMG) Predictability Rank


ASX:FMG Fortescue Ltd ASX:FMG
78 GF Score
Price A$19.25
GF Value A$19.97
Valuation Fairly Valued
! 6 Warning Signs
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What is Fortescue Predictability Rank?

1 (5)

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Fortescue Predictability Rank Related Terms

ASX:FMG
78GF Score
Fortescue Ltd ASX:FMG
Predictability Rank is just one metric. See GF Score™, valuation, warning signs, and more.
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Fortescue Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

PredictablesNon-PredictableAll stocks
Total Number of stocks57018332403
Total Lost Money61830891
Total Lost More Than 50%18412430
Total Lost More Than 90%48690
Average Gain260.6%100.0%138.1%
Median Gain150.0%13.0%39.0%
Maximum Gain2852.0%11483.0%11483.0%
Maximum Loss-100.0%-100.0%-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain12.7%6.7%8.4%
Annualized Median Gain8.9%1.1%3.1%


















For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank5-Star4.5-Star4-Star3.5-Star3-Star2.5-Star2-Star1-Star (non-predictable)Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks 3.3% 2.9% 3.7% 3.3% 3.3% 3.7% 3.3% 76.3% 100%
% that are in Loss (10y) 3% 10% 8% 9% 11% 18% 16% 45% 37%
Average Gain (10y) 364.6% 330.9% 278.0% 235.1% 243.5% 227.8% 154.8% 100.0% 138.1%
Median Gain (10y) 238.5% 193.5% 171.0% 159.0% 132.5% 113.5% 87.0% 13.0% 39.0%
Maximum Gainer 2228.0% 2547.0% 2452.0% 2852.0% 2432.0% 1892.0% 1807.0% 11483.0% 11483.0%
Maximum Loser -82.0% -53.0% -67.0% -100.0% -83.0% -100.0% -78.0% -100.0% -100.0%
Annualized Average Gain 15.4% 14.6% 13.2% 12.0% 12.2% 11.7% 9.1% 6.7% 8.4%
Annualized Median Gain 12.1% 10.6% 9.8% 9.3% 8.2% 7.3% 6.0% 1.1% 3.1%
















For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Also read:

Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety

Is Fortescue (ASX:FMG) Overvalued in 2026?

Based on GuruFocus' analysis, Fortescue stock appears to be undervalued. The current stock price of A$19.25 is trading 3.6% below its estimated GF Value™ of A$19.97. GuruFocus considers Fortescue to be Fairly Valued.

Key valuation signals for ASX:FMG:

  • Predictability Rank:
  • GF Value™: A$19.97 vs. price of A$19.25 (3.6% below fair value)
  • GF Score™: 78/100 with 6 warning signs

No single metric tells the full story. See the ASX:FMG stock analysis page for a complete view including 30-year financials, guru trades, and insider activity.

Fortescue Business Description

Address 87 Adelaide Terrace, Level 2, East Perth, Perth, WA, AUS, 6004
Fortescue is an Australia-based iron ore miner. It has grown from obscurity at the start of 2008 to become the world's fourth-largest producer. Growth was fueled by debt, now repaid. Expansion from 55 million metric tons in fiscal 2012 to about 195 million metric tons in 2025 means Fortescue supplies around 10% of global seaborne iron ore. Further expansion to about 210 million metric tons is likely once its 22 million metric ton Iron Bridge magnetite mine ramps up, likely in 2028. However, with longer-term demand likely to decline as China's economy matures, its future margins are likely to be below historical averages. More recently, Fortescue diversified into copper and green energy. It has big ambitions here, but its efforts are at an early stage.
78GF Score

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Predictability Rank is just one metric. See GF Value™, 30-year financials, guru trades, warning signs, and more.

A$19.25
Price
A$19.97
GF Value