What is Actinium Pharmaceuticals Predictability Rank?
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Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:
1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.
It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.
GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.
Actinium Pharmaceuticals Predictability Rank Calculation
In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.
Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:
Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.
The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.
Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns
| Predictables | Non-Predictable | All stocks |
|---|
| Total Number of stocks | 570 | 1833 | 2403 |
| Total Lost Money | 61 | 830 | 891 |
| Total Lost More Than 50% | 18 | 412 | 430 |
| Total Lost More Than 90% | 4 | 86 | 90 |
| Average Gain | 260.6% | 100.0% | 138.1% |
| Median Gain | 150.0% | 13.0% | 39.0% |
| Maximum Gain | 2852.0% | 11483.0% | 11483.0% |
| Maximum Loss | -100.0% | -100.0% | -100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain | 12.7% | 6.7% | 8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain | 8.9% | 1.1% | 3.1% |
For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.
| Predictability Rank | 5-Star | 4.5-Star | 4-Star | 3.5-Star | 3-Star | 2.5-Star | 2-Star | 1-Star (non-predictable) | Average among all |
|---|
| % Out of All 2403 Stocks |
3.3% |
2.9% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
3.3% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
76.3% |
100% |
| % that are in Loss (10y) |
3% |
10% |
8% |
9% |
11% |
18% |
16% |
45% |
37% |
| Average Gain (10y) |
364.6% |
330.9% |
278.0% |
235.1% |
243.5% |
227.8% |
154.8% |
100.0% |
138.1% |
| Median Gain (10y) |
238.5% |
193.5% |
171.0% |
159.0% |
132.5% |
113.5% |
87.0% |
13.0% |
39.0% |
| Maximum Gainer |
2228.0% |
2547.0% |
2452.0% |
2852.0% |
2432.0% |
1892.0% |
1807.0% |
11483.0% |
11483.0% |
| Maximum Loser |
-82.0% |
-53.0% |
-67.0% |
-100.0% |
-83.0% |
-100.0% |
-78.0% |
-100.0% |
-100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain |
15.4% |
14.6% |
13.2% |
12.0% |
12.2% |
11.7% |
9.1% |
6.7% |
8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain |
12.1% |
10.6% |
9.8% |
9.3% |
8.2% |
7.3% |
6.0% |
1.1% |
3.1% |
For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank
Also read:
Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety
Actinium Pharmaceuticals Business Description
Traded in Other Exchanges
Address
100 Park Avenue, 23rd Floor, New York, NY, USA, 10017
Actinium Pharmaceuticals Inc is a biopharmaceutical company engaged in the development of radiotherapies for patients with cancers lacking effective treatment options. The company's proprietary technology platform utilizes monoclonal antibodies to deliver radioisotopes directly to cells of interest to kill those cells safely and effectively. Its product candidates are Iomab-B, an antibody-drug construct containing iodine 131 (I-131), used for hematopoietic stem cells transplantation in various indications, and Actimab-A, an antibody-drug construct containing actinium 225 (Ac-225), currently in human clinical trials for acute myeloid leukemia.
Executives
| Sandesh Seth |
director |
300 E 93RD STREET, #20-B, NEW YORK NY 10128 |
| Steve O'loughlin |
officer: VP, Finance and Corporate Dev. |
955 HARTMAN RUN ROAD, MORGANTOWN WV 26507 |
| Dale L. Ludwig |
officer: Chief Scientific Officer |
21 FERNWOOD ROAD, ROCKAWAY NJ 07866-2028 |
| Jeffrey W. Chell |
director |
521 MANDALAY AVENUE #708, CLEARWATER BEACH FL 33767 |
| Ajit Shetty |
director |
643 ZEEDIJK, KNOKKE C9 8300 |
| Anil Kapur |
officer: Chief Commercial Officer |
275 MADISON AVE, SUITE 702, NEW YORK NY 10016 |
| Nitya G. Ray |
officer: Executive Vice President |
14 BAYBURY COURT, EAST HANOVER NJ 07936 |
| Mark Stanley Berger |
officer: Chief Medical Officer |
140 RIVERSIDE DRIVE, APT. 9K, NEW YORK NY 10024 |
| Memorial Sloan-kettering Cancer Center |
10 percent owner |
1275 YORK AVE., NEW YORK NY 10065 |
| Sergio Traversa |
director |
138 CANTERBURY LN, BLUE BELL PA 19422 |
| C. David Nicholson, |
director |
103 CHILDS ROAD, BASKIN RIDGE NJ 07092 |
| Kaushik J Dave |
director, officer: President and CEO |
4 WATER STREET, EDISON NJ 08820 |
| Richard I Steinhart |
director |
125 ELM STREET, NEW CANAAN CT 06840 |
| Ahlb Holdings, Llc |
10 percent owner |
C/O MSKCC, 1275 YORK AVE., NEW YORK NY 10065 |
| Actinium Holdings, Ltd. |
10 percent owner |
C/O /O STERLING MANAGEMENT, LTD., P.O. BOX HM 29, HAMILTON HM CX D0 00000 |
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