AUID (AuthID) Predictability Rank

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What is AuthID Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

AuthID Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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AuthID Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Technology » Software » AuthID Inc (NAS:AUID) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

8KZ0:Germany

Address

1580 North Logan Street, Suite 660, Unit 51767, Denver, CO, USA, 80203

Website

https://www.authid.ai

AuthID Inc is a company engaged in ensuring cyber-savvy enterprises Know Who's Behind the Device, for every customer or employee login and transaction. Through its easy-to-integrate, patented, biometric identity platform, authID quickly and accurately verifies a user's identity, eliminating any assumption of who is behind a device and preventing cybercriminals from taking over accounts. authID combines digital onboarding, biometric password less authentication and account recovery, with a fast, accurate, user-friendly experience-delivering identity verification.

Executives

Michael Charles Thompson	director	241 WEST MARKET ST., LEESBURG VA 20176
Thomas Robert Szoke	director, officer: Chief Solutions Architect	160 E. LAKE BRANTLEY DRIVE, LONGWOOD FL 32779
Ken Jisser	director	1195 NIKULINA CT, SAN JOSE CA 95120
Rhoniel Daguro	director	846 FARM DRIVE, WEST CHICAGO IL 60185
Stephen Jeffrey Garchik	other: Director by Deputization	880 DOVER STREET, BOCA RATON FL 33487
Joseph Trelin	director	3348 E TERRACE STREET, SEATTLE WA 98122
Edward C Sellitto	officer: Chief Financial Officer	85 ATTERBURY DRIVE, SMITHTOWN NY 11787
Pham Hang Thi Bich	officer: Chief Financial Officer	7208 CIELO AZUL PASS, AUSTIN TX 78732
Michael L Koehneman	director	276 FIFTH AVENUE, SUITE 505, NEW YORK NY 10001
Smith Cecil N Iii	officer: President & CTO	1420 S ELIZABETH ST., DENVER CO 80210
Stuart Stoller	officer: Chief Financial Officer	C/O THE NEW YORK TIMES CO, 229 WEST 43RD ST, NEW YORK NY 10036
Neepa Patel	director	150 EAST 44TH ST. APT 10D, NEW YORK NY 10017
Phillip L Kumnick	director	J549 QUAIL RIDGE LANE, PO BOX 564, ST. ALBANS MT 63073
Thomas L Thimot	director, officer: Chief Executive Officer	201 JONES RD, WALTHAM MA 02451
Philip R Broenniman	director	C/O CSS INDUSTRIES, INC., 450 PLYMOUTH ROAD, SUITE 300, PLYMOUTH MEETING PA 19462