Aura Biosciences (Aura Biosciences) Predictability Rank

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What is Aura Biosciences Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Aura Biosciences Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Aura Biosciences (Aura Biosciences) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Healthcare » Biotechnology » Aura Biosciences Inc (NAS:AURA) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

85 Bolton Street, Cambridge, MA, USA, 02140

Website

https://www.aurabiosciences.com

Aura Biosciences Inc is a clinical-stage oncology company developing a novel technology platform based on virus-like drug conjugates to target and destroy cancer cells selectively while activating the immune system to create long-lasting anti-tumor immunity.

Executives

Matrix Capital Management Company, Lp	10 percent owner	1000 WINTER STREET, C/O MATRIX CAPITAL MANAGEMENT, WALTHAM MA 02451
David Michael Johnson	director	C/O ZENTALIS PHARMACEUTICALS, LLC, 530 SEVENTH AVENUE, SUITE 2201, NEW YORK NY 10018
Julie B Feder	officer: Chief Financial Officer	C/O VERASTEM, INC., 117 KENDRICK STREET, SUITE 500, NEEDHAM MA 02494
De Los Pinos Elisabet	director, officer: Chief Executive Officer	C/O AURA BIOSCIENCES, INC., 85 BOLTON STREET, CAMBRIDGE MA 02140
Janet Jill Hopkins	officer: See Remarks	C/O AURA BIOSCIENCES, INC., 80 GUEST STREET, BOSTON MA 01235
Cadmus Rich	officer: See Remarks	C/O AURA BIOSCIENCES, INC., 85 BOLTON STREET, CAMBRIDGE MA 02140
Rosch Mark De	officer: Chief Operating Officer	C/O AURA BIOSCIENCES, INC., 85 BOLTON STREET, CAMBRIDGE MA 02140
Medicxi Ventures Management (jersey) Ltd	10 percent owner	C/O INTERTRUST FUND SERVICES (JERSEY), 44 ESPLANADE, ST. HELIER Y9 JE4 9WG
Medicxi Growth I Lp	10 percent owner	C/O ELIAN FUND SERVICES (JERSEY) LIMITED, 44 ESPLANADE, ST HELIER Y9 JE4 9WG
Giovanni Mariggi	director	C/O AURA BIOSCIENCES, INC., 85 BOLTON STREET, CAMBRIDGE MA 02140
Medicxi Growth I Gp Ltd	10 percent owner	C/O INTERTRUST FUND SERVICES (JERSEY), 44 ESPLANADE, ST. HELIER Y9 JE4 9WG
Medicxi Growth Co-invest I Lp	10 percent owner	C/O INTERTRUST FUND SERVICES (JERSEY), 44 ESPLANADE, ST. HELIER Y9 JE4 9WG
David E. Goel	10 percent owner	C/O MATRIX CAPITAL MANAGEMENT CO., LP, 1000 WINTER STREET, SUITE 4500, WALTHAM MA 02451
Karan S. Takhar	director	C/O ZENTALIS PHARMACEUTICALS,INC., 530 SEVENTH AVENUE, SUITE 2201, NEW YORK NY 10018
Antony C. Mattessich	director	C/O OCULAR THERAPEUTIX, INC., 34 CROSBY DR., SUITE 105, BEDFORD MA 01730