Nuo Therapeutics (Nuo Therapeutics) Predictability Rank

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What is Nuo Therapeutics Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Nuo Therapeutics Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Nuo Therapeutics (Nuo Therapeutics) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Healthcare » Biotechnology » Nuo Therapeutics Inc (OTCPK:AURX) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

8285 El Rio, Suite 190, Houston, TX, USA, 77054

Website

https://www.nuot.com

Nuo Therapeutics Inc is a regenerative therapies company focused on developing and marketing products for chronic wound care primarily within the U.S. Company's commercialize innovative cell-based technologies that harness the regenerative capacity of the human body to trigger natural healing. The company derives revenues from the sale of the Aurix product to customers consisting of primarily hospital outpatient wound care clinics and other private practice physicians treating chronic wounds. The Aurix product became commercially available for sale in current financial year.

Executives

Charles E Sheedy	10 percent owner	TWO HOUSTON CENTER, SUITE 2907, HOUSTON TX 77010
David Emerson Jorden	director, officer: CEO, CFO	2635 TECHNOLOGY FOREST BLVD., THE WOODLANDS TX 77381
Lawrence Atinsky	director	780 THIRD AVENUE, 37TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10017
C Eric Winzer	director
Paul Mintz	director	C/O NUO THERAPEUTICS INC., 207A PERRY PARKWAY, SUITE 1, GAITHERSBURG MD 20877
Peter Clausen	officer: CSO	11204 JEFFRO COURT, IJAMSVILLE MD 21754
Scott M. Pittman	director	3683 JOHN NASH BLVD., BLUEFIELD WV 24701
Boyalife Investment Fund I, Inc.	10 percent owner	2453 S. ARCHER AVE., SUITE B, CHICAGO IL 60616
Dean Tozer	officer: CHIEF COMMERCIAL OFFICER	C/O ADVANCED BIOHEALING, INC., 36 CHURCH LANE, WESTPORT CT 06880
Steven A Shallcross	officer: SEE REMARKS	C/O ELYS GAME TECHNOLOGY CORP., 130 ADELAIDE STREET WEST, SUITE 701, TORONTO A6 M5H2K4
Aldagen Holdings, Llc	10 percent owner, other: May be part of a 13(d) group	C/O THOMAS A. ALLEN, ESQ., 4101 LAKE BOONE TRAIL, STE 300, RALEIGH NC 27607
Kathryne Carr	10 percent owner, other: May be part of a 13(d) group	315 OLD IVY WAY, SUITE 101, CHARLOTTESVILLE VA 22903
William W Brooke	10 percent owner, other: May be part of a 13(d) group	2100 THIRD AVENUE NORTH, SUITE 600, BIRMINGHAM AL 35203
Guercio Joseph Del	director	C/O CLARK INVESTMENTS, 7500 OLD GEORGETOWN ROAD, SUITE 620, BETHESDA MD 20814
B. Jefferson Clark	10 percent owner, other: May be part of a 13(d) group	C/O ALDAGEN, INC., 2810 MERDIAN PARKWAY, SUITE 148, DURHAM NC 27713