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AVP (AVPI) Predictability Rank


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What is AVP Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

AVP Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

PredictablesNon-PredictableAll stocks
Total Number of stocks57018332403
Total Lost Money61830891
Total Lost More Than 50%18412430
Total Lost More Than 90%48690
Average Gain260.6%100.0%138.1%
Median Gain150.0%13.0%39.0%
Maximum Gain2852.0%11483.0%11483.0%
Maximum Loss-100.0%-100.0%-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain12.7%6.7%8.4%
Annualized Median Gain8.9%1.1%3.1%


















For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank5-Star4.5-Star4-Star3.5-Star3-Star2.5-Star2-Star1-Star (non-predictable)Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks 3.3% 2.9% 3.7% 3.3% 3.3% 3.7% 3.3% 76.3% 100%
% that are in Loss (10y) 3% 10% 8% 9% 11% 18% 16% 45% 37%
Average Gain (10y) 364.6% 330.9% 278.0% 235.1% 243.5% 227.8% 154.8% 100.0% 138.1%
Median Gain (10y) 238.5% 193.5% 171.0% 159.0% 132.5% 113.5% 87.0% 13.0% 39.0%
Maximum Gainer 2228.0% 2547.0% 2452.0% 2852.0% 2432.0% 1892.0% 1807.0% 11483.0% 11483.0%
Maximum Loser -82.0% -53.0% -67.0% -100.0% -83.0% -100.0% -78.0% -100.0% -100.0%
Annualized Average Gain 15.4% 14.6% 13.2% 12.0% 12.2% 11.7% 9.1% 6.7% 8.4%
Annualized Median Gain 12.1% 10.6% 9.8% 9.3% 8.2% 7.3% 6.0% 1.1% 3.1%
















For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Also read:

Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety

AVP Predictability Rank Related Terms

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AVP (AVPI) Business Description

Industry
GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Communication Services » Media - Diversified » AVP Inc (OTCPK:AVPI) » Definitions » Predictability Rank
Comparable Companies
GBBT BWMG SCRH XFTBE AASP MLFB EPGG AMMA TIXC PRKA GLXZ GBYLF VXELD SKIS BWL.A DVD BTN JAKK CLUB ESCA
Traded in Other Exchanges
N/A
Address
1187 Coast Village Road, Suite 319, Santa Barbara, CA, USA, 93108
Website
http://www.avp.com
AVP Inc owns and operates professional beach volleyball tournaments in the United States. The company's tournaments include FIVB Huntington Beach Open, King of the Court Series and AVP Gold Series Standings.
Executives
Diker Management Llc 10 percent owner 570 LEXINGTON AVENUE, 27TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10022
Leonard Armato director, officer: Chief Executive Officer ASSOCIATION OF VOLLEYBALL PROFESSIONALS, 6100 CENTER DRIVE, 9TH FLOOR, LOS ANGELES CA 90045
Stephen D Royer 10 percent owner
Kathy P Vrabeck director 625 WESTPORT PARKWAY, GRAPEVINE TX 76051
William J Chardavoyne director 3100 OCEAN PARK BLVD, STE 1000, SANTA MONICA CA 90405
Jack F Kemp director 1701 PENNSYLVANIA AVE NW, WASHINGTON DC 20006-2805
Scott Painter director ASSOCIATION OF VOLLEYBALL PROFESSIONALS, 6100 CENTER DRIVE, 9TH FLOOR, LOS ANGELES CA 90045
Amtrust International Insurance Ltd 10 percent owner SUITE 102 WASHINGTON MALL, 7 REID STREET, HAMILTON D0 HM11
Twenty-first Century Fox, Inc. 10 percent owner 1211 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK NY 10036
Michael Roth 10 percent owner 3600 SOUTH LAKE DRIVE, ST. FRANCIS WI 53235
Brian Jay Stark 10 percent owner 3600 SOUTH LAKE DRIVE, ST. FRANCIS WI 53235

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