AWF (Alliancebernstein Glb High Fund) Predictability Rank

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What is Alliancebernstein Glb High Fund Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Alliancebernstein Glb High Fund Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Alliancebernstein Glb High Fund Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Financial Services » Asset Management » Alliancebernstein Glb High Inc Fund Inc (NYSE:AWF) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

1345 Avenue of the Americas, New York, NY, USA, 10105

Website

https://www.abfunds.com

Alliancebernstein Glb High Inc Fund Inc is a United States-based diversified, closed-end management investment company. Its primary investment objective is to seek high current income, and secondarily, capital appreciation. The fund invests in the debt securities, including Sovereign Debt Obligations and corporate debt, denominated in non-U.S. currencies as well as in the U.S. Dollar. It may invest without limit in emerging and developed markets and debt securities of U.S. and non-U.S. corporate issuers.

Executives

Gershon M Distenfeld	officer: Vice President	C/O ALLIANCE CAPITAL MANAGEMENT CORP., 1345 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK NY 10105
Fahd Malik	officer: VP & Portfolio Manager	1345 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK NY 10105
William Walsh Smith	officer: VP & Portfolio Manager	501 COMMERCE STREET, NASHVILLE TN 37203
Christian Diclementi	officer: VP & Portfolio Manager	1345 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK NY 10105
Joan M Lammtennant	other: Director of Fund's Adviser	40 WANTAGE AVE, BRANCHVILLE NJ 07890
Todd Walthall	other: Director of Fund's Adviser	C/O ALLIANCEBERNSTEIN, 1345 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK NY 10105
Seth P Bernstein	other: Pres, CEO & Dir, Fund's Advsr	C/O ALLIANCEBERNSTEIN HOLDING, L.P., 1345 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK NY 10105
Onur Erzan	director, officer: President & CEO	C/O ALLIANCE BERNSTEIN L.P., 1345 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK NY 10105
Jeanette W Loeb	director	895 PARK AVENUE, NEW YORK NY 10075
Ali Dibadj	other: CFO of Fund's Adviser	C/O JANUS HENDERSON GROUP, 151 DETROIT STREET, DENVER CO 80206
Karl Sprules	other: Head GTO of Fund's Adviser	C/O ALLIANCEBERNSTEIN, 1345 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK NY 10105
Jorge A. Bermudez	director	CORPORATE LAW DEPT., CITIGROUP INC., 425 PARK AVENUE, NEW YORK NY 10043
Bertram L Scott	other: Director of Fund's Adviser	C/O BECTON DICKERSON & CO, 1 BECTON DR, FRANKLIN LAKES NJ 07417
Douglas J Peebles	officer: Portfolio Manager	C/O ALLIANCE CAPITAL MANAGEMENT COR, 1345 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK NY 10105
Nella Domenici	other: Director of Fund's Adviser	C/O ALLIANCEBERNSTEIN, 1345 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK NY 10105