AWIN (AERWINS Technologies) Predictability Rank

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What is AERWINS Technologies Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

AERWINS Technologies Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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AERWINS Technologies Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Technology » Hardware » AERWINS Technologies Inc (OTCPK:AWIN) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

691 Mill Street, The Walnut Building, Suite 2, Los Angeles, CA, USA, 90021

Website

https://www.aerwins.us

AERWINS Technologies Inc is Designing and Developing Manned and Unmanned Crafts for Low Altitude Airspace. It aims to realize an Air Mobility Society in which cars, specialized crafts, and drones can fly freely. It aligns vehicles with the stringent requirements of the Federal Aviation Administration's (FAA) Powered Ultra-Light Air Vehicle Category, setting a new standard for safe low-altitude manned flight.

Executives

Shuhei Komatsu	director, 10 percent owner, officer: Chairman of the Board and CEO	# 4510, 4-20-2 SHIBAURA, MINATO-KU, TOKYO M0 0000
Daisuke Katano	director, officer: Chief Operating Officer(1)	#1701 2-17-50 AKASAKA, MINATO-KU, TOKYO M0 107-0052
Mike K Sayama	director	220 SOUTH KING ST., 3RD FLOOR, HONOLULU HI 96813
Steve Iwamura	director	643 ILALO STREET, HONOLULU HI 96813
Kensuke Okabe	officer: Chief Financial Officer	#505, 7-4-4, KITAYAMATA,, TSUZUKI-KU, YOKOHAMA M0 0000
Kazuo Miura	officer: Chief Product Officer	4-5-13 EDAHIGASHI, TSUZUKI-KU, YOKOHAMA M0 224-0006
Marehiko Yamada	director	7-5-20, FUKASAWA, SETAGAYA-KU, TOKYO M0 158-0081
Taiji Ito	director, officer: See Remarks	3-32 KIOICHO, CHIYODA-KU, TOKYO M0 0000
Dustin M Shindo	director, 10 percent owner, officer: Chief Executive Officer	HOKU CORPORATION, 1288 ALA MOANA BLVD STE 220, HONOLULU HI 96814
Plc Barclays	10 percent owner	1 CHURCHILL PLACE, CANARY WHARF, LONDON X0 E14 5HP
Trisha Nomura	officer: Chief Financial Officer	643 ILALO STREET, HONOLULU HI 96813
Hank Wuh	director, 10 percent owner, officer: Chief Strategy Officer	643 ILALO STREET, HONOLULU HI 96813
Kotaro Chiba	director	643 ILALO STREET, HONOLULU HI 96813
Mehana Equity Llc	10 percent owner	643 ILALO STREET, HONOLULU HI 96813