Bath & Body Works (Bath & Body Works) Predictability Rank

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What is Bath & Body Works Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Bath & Body Works Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Bath & Body Works (Bath & Body Works) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Consumer Cyclical » Retail - Cyclical » Bath & Body Works Inc (NYSE:BBWI) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

BBWI:Mexico LTD0:Germany B1BW34:Brazil

Address

Three Limited Parkway, Columbus, OH, USA, 43230

Website

https://www.bbwinc.com

Bath & Body Works is a specialty home fragrance and fragrant body care retailer operating under the Bath & Body Works, C.O. Bigelow, and White Barn brands. The company generates most of its business in North America, with less than 5% of sales from international markets in fiscal 2022. For fiscal 2022, 72% of sales stemmed from the brick-and-mortar network (which was composed of more than 1,800 retail stores), similar to 2021 levels, as consumer shopping patterns remained to normal. Future growth is expected from store reformatting, digital and international channels, as well as adjacent category expansion.

Executives

Eva C Boratto	officer: Chief Financial Officer	55 GLENLAKE PARKWAY, NE, ATLANTA GA 30328
Wendy C. Arlin	officer: EVP and CFO	THREE LIMITED PARKWAY, COLUMBUS OH 43230
Thomas Kuhn	director	C/O INTERVAL LEISURE GROUP, INC., 6262 SUNSET DRIVE, MIAMI FL 33143
Steven E Voskuil	director	5405 WINDWARD PARKWAY, ALPHARETTA GA 30004
Lucy Brady	director	C/O BATH & BODY WORKS, INC., THREE LIMITED PARKWAY, COLUMBUS OH 43230
Gina Boswell	director, officer: Chief Executive Officer	MANPOWERGROUP INC., 100 MANPOWER PLACE, MILWAUKEE WI 53212
Thomas E. Mazurek	officer: Chief Supply Chain Officer	C/O BATH & BODY WORKS, INC., THREE LIMITED PARKWAY, COLUMBUS OH 43230
Alessandro Bogliolo	director	727 FIFTH AVENUE, NEW YORK NY 10022
Juan Rajlin	director	C/O BATH & BODY WORKS, INC., THREE LIMITED PARKWAY, COLUMBUS OH 43230
Robert H Schottenstein	director
Sarah E Nash	director	200 MILIK STREET, CARTERET NJ 07008
James L. Bersani	officer: EVP & President - Real Estate	THREE LIMITED PARKWAY, COLUMBUS OH 43230
Michael C. Wu	officer: Chief Legal Officer & Secy.	4 LIMITED PARKWAY, REYNOLDSBURG OH 43068
Christopher T. Cramer	officer: Chief Operating Officer	THREE LIMITED PARKWAY, COLUMBUS OH 43230
Leslie H. Wexner	director, 10 percent owner, officer: Chairman and CEO	8000 WALTON PKWY, STE 100, NEW ALBANY OH 43054