What is BioAtla Predictability Rank?
Not Rated
Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:
1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.
It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.
GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.
BioAtla Predictability Rank Calculation
In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.
Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:
Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.
The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.
Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns
| Predictables | Non-Predictable | All stocks |
|---|
| Total Number of stocks | 570 | 1833 | 2403 |
| Total Lost Money | 61 | 830 | 891 |
| Total Lost More Than 50% | 18 | 412 | 430 |
| Total Lost More Than 90% | 4 | 86 | 90 |
| Average Gain | 260.6% | 100.0% | 138.1% |
| Median Gain | 150.0% | 13.0% | 39.0% |
| Maximum Gain | 2852.0% | 11483.0% | 11483.0% |
| Maximum Loss | -100.0% | -100.0% | -100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain | 12.7% | 6.7% | 8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain | 8.9% | 1.1% | 3.1% |
For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.
| Predictability Rank | 5-Star | 4.5-Star | 4-Star | 3.5-Star | 3-Star | 2.5-Star | 2-Star | 1-Star (non-predictable) | Average among all |
|---|
| % Out of All 2403 Stocks |
3.3% |
2.9% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
3.3% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
76.3% |
100% |
| % that are in Loss (10y) |
3% |
10% |
8% |
9% |
11% |
18% |
16% |
45% |
37% |
| Average Gain (10y) |
364.6% |
330.9% |
278.0% |
235.1% |
243.5% |
227.8% |
154.8% |
100.0% |
138.1% |
| Median Gain (10y) |
238.5% |
193.5% |
171.0% |
159.0% |
132.5% |
113.5% |
87.0% |
13.0% |
39.0% |
| Maximum Gainer |
2228.0% |
2547.0% |
2452.0% |
2852.0% |
2432.0% |
1892.0% |
1807.0% |
11483.0% |
11483.0% |
| Maximum Loser |
-82.0% |
-53.0% |
-67.0% |
-100.0% |
-83.0% |
-100.0% |
-78.0% |
-100.0% |
-100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain |
15.4% |
14.6% |
13.2% |
12.0% |
12.2% |
11.7% |
9.1% |
6.7% |
8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain |
12.1% |
10.6% |
9.8% |
9.3% |
8.2% |
7.3% |
6.0% |
1.1% |
3.1% |
For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank
Also read:
Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety
BioAtla Business Description
Traded in Other Exchanges
N/A
Address
11085 Torreyana Road, San Diego, CA, USA, 92121
BioAtla Inc is a clinical-stage biopharmaceutical company. The company is engaged in the development of a novel class of specific and selective antibody-based therapeutics for the treatment of solid tumor cancer. Its pipeline products comprise mecbotamab vedotin (BA3011), ozuriftamab vedotin (BA3021), and evalstotug (BA3071), and its Phase 1 clinical trial of BA3182 (CAB-EpCAM x CAB-CD3) and Bispecific antibody programs.
Executives
| Sylvia Mcbrinn |
director |
|
| Short Jay M Phd |
director, 10 percent owner, officer: Chief Executive Officer |
C/O DIVERSA CORPORATION, 4955 DIRECTORS PLACE, SAN DIEGO CA 92121 |
| Christian Vasquez |
officer: See Remarks |
121 E. PALOMAR STREET, CHULA VISTA CA 91911 |
| Lawrence Steinman |
director |
10555 SCIENCE CENTER DRIVE, SAN DIEGO CA 92121 |
| Eddie Williams |
director |
260 LITTLEFIELD AVENUE, SOUTH SAN FRANCISCO CA 94080 |
| Scott Andrew Smith |
director, officer: President |
C/O CELGENE CORPORATION, 86 MORRIS AVENUE, SUMMIT NJ 07901 |
| Eric Sievers |
officer: Chief Medical Officer |
11085 TORREYANA ROAD, SAN DIEGO CA 92121 |
| Richard A Waldron |
officer: Chief Financial Officer |
901 MARINERS ISLAND BLVD STE.205, SAN MATEO CA 94404 |
| Guy Levy |
director, 10 percent owner |
C/O SOLEUS PRIVATE EQUITY GP I, LLC, 104 FIELD POINT ROAD, 2ND FLOOR, GREENWICH CT 06830 |
| Cormorant Asset Management, Lp |
10 percent owner |
200 CLARENDON STREET, 52ND FLOOR, BOSTON MA 02116 |
| Soleus Pe Gp I, Llc |
10 percent owner |
104 FIELD POINT ROAD, 2ND FLOOR, GREENWICH CT 06830 |
| Himalaya Parent Llc |
10 percent owner |
11085 TORREYANA ROAD, SAN DIEGO CA 92121 |
| Susan Moran |
director |
1232 RICHARDSON AVE, LOS ALTOS CA 94024 |
| Carolyn Anderson Short |
10 percent owner, officer: See Remarks |
11085 TORREYANA ROAD, SAN DIEGO CA 92121 |
| Priyanka Belawat |
director |
C/O ITEOS THERAPEUTICS, INC., 139 MAIN STREET, CAMBRIDGE MA 02142 |
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