What is Beam Global Predictability Rank?
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Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:
1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.
It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.
GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.
Beam Global Predictability Rank Calculation
In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.
Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:
Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.
The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.
Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns
| Predictables | Non-Predictable | All stocks |
|---|
| Total Number of stocks | 570 | 1833 | 2403 |
| Total Lost Money | 61 | 830 | 891 |
| Total Lost More Than 50% | 18 | 412 | 430 |
| Total Lost More Than 90% | 4 | 86 | 90 |
| Average Gain | 260.6% | 100.0% | 138.1% |
| Median Gain | 150.0% | 13.0% | 39.0% |
| Maximum Gain | 2852.0% | 11483.0% | 11483.0% |
| Maximum Loss | -100.0% | -100.0% | -100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain | 12.7% | 6.7% | 8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain | 8.9% | 1.1% | 3.1% |
For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.
| Predictability Rank | 5-Star | 4.5-Star | 4-Star | 3.5-Star | 3-Star | 2.5-Star | 2-Star | 1-Star (non-predictable) | Average among all |
|---|
| % Out of All 2403 Stocks |
3.3% |
2.9% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
3.3% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
76.3% |
100% |
| % that are in Loss (10y) |
3% |
10% |
8% |
9% |
11% |
18% |
16% |
45% |
37% |
| Average Gain (10y) |
364.6% |
330.9% |
278.0% |
235.1% |
243.5% |
227.8% |
154.8% |
100.0% |
138.1% |
| Median Gain (10y) |
238.5% |
193.5% |
171.0% |
159.0% |
132.5% |
113.5% |
87.0% |
13.0% |
39.0% |
| Maximum Gainer |
2228.0% |
2547.0% |
2452.0% |
2852.0% |
2432.0% |
1892.0% |
1807.0% |
11483.0% |
11483.0% |
| Maximum Loser |
-82.0% |
-53.0% |
-67.0% |
-100.0% |
-83.0% |
-100.0% |
-78.0% |
-100.0% |
-100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain |
15.4% |
14.6% |
13.2% |
12.0% |
12.2% |
11.7% |
9.1% |
6.7% |
8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain |
12.1% |
10.6% |
9.8% |
9.3% |
8.2% |
7.3% |
6.0% |
1.1% |
3.1% |
For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank
Also read:
Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety
Beam Global Business Description
Traded in Other Exchanges
Address
5660 Eastgate Drive, San Diego, CA, USA, 92121
Beam Global produces sustainable technology for electric vehicle (EV) charging, outdoor media, and energy security, without the construction, disruption, and costs of grid-tied solutions. Its products are founded upon its patented EV ARC and Solar Treelines and include BeamTrak patented solar tracking, and ARC Technology energy storage, along with EV charging, outdoor media, and disaster preparedness packages. From start to finish, the company develops, patents, designs, engineers, and manufactures renewably energized products that help the environment, empower communities, and keep people moving.
Executives
| Desmond C Wheatley |
officer: President and CEO |
3809 VIA REPOSO, RANCHO SANTA FE CA 92091 |
| Townsend Battery Partners, Llc |
10 percent owner |
11311 MCCORMICK ROAD, SUITE 470, HUNT VALLEY MD 21031 |
| Anthony L Posawatz |
director |
8071 PINE FOREST CT, DAVISBURY MI 48350 |
| Peter Warner Davidson |
director |
43 PIERREPONT ST., BROOKLYN NY 11201 |
| Nancy C Floyd |
director |
101 CONSTITUTION AVENUE, NW, WASHINGTON DC 20080 |
| Katherine H Mcdermott |
officer: Chief Financial Officer |
5660 EASTGATE DRIVE, SAN DIEGO CA 92121 |
| Robert C Schweitzer |
director |
1441 SW 29TH AVENUE, POMPANO BEACH FL 33069 |
| Keshif Ventures, Llc |
10 percent owner |
11512 EL CAMINO REAL, SUITE 340, SAN DIEGO CA 92130 |
| Paul Feller |
director |
8439 SUNSET BLVD., 2ND FLOOR, WEST HOLLYWOOD CA 90069 |
| Jay S Potter |
director |
10509 VISTA SORRENTO PKWY, SUITE 300, SAN DIEGO CA 92121 |
| Chris Caulson |
officer: Chief Financial Officer |
4525 GRANGER STREET, SAN DIEGO CA 92107 |
| John M Evey |
director |
7683 MARKER ROAD, SAN DIEGO CA 92130 |
| Robert L Noble |
director, 10 percent owner, officer: Chief Executive Officer |
150 HUMMINGBIRD HILL, ENCINITAS CA 92024 |
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