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Beneficient (Beneficient) Predictability Rank


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What is Beneficient Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Beneficient Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

PredictablesNon-PredictableAll stocks
Total Number of stocks57018332403
Total Lost Money61830891
Total Lost More Than 50%18412430
Total Lost More Than 90%48690
Average Gain260.6%100.0%138.1%
Median Gain150.0%13.0%39.0%
Maximum Gain2852.0%11483.0%11483.0%
Maximum Loss-100.0%-100.0%-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain12.7%6.7%8.4%
Annualized Median Gain8.9%1.1%3.1%


















For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank5-Star4.5-Star4-Star3.5-Star3-Star2.5-Star2-Star1-Star (non-predictable)Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks 3.3% 2.9% 3.7% 3.3% 3.3% 3.7% 3.3% 76.3% 100%
% that are in Loss (10y) 3% 10% 8% 9% 11% 18% 16% 45% 37%
Average Gain (10y) 364.6% 330.9% 278.0% 235.1% 243.5% 227.8% 154.8% 100.0% 138.1%
Median Gain (10y) 238.5% 193.5% 171.0% 159.0% 132.5% 113.5% 87.0% 13.0% 39.0%
Maximum Gainer 2228.0% 2547.0% 2452.0% 2852.0% 2432.0% 1892.0% 1807.0% 11483.0% 11483.0%
Maximum Loser -82.0% -53.0% -67.0% -100.0% -83.0% -100.0% -78.0% -100.0% -100.0%
Annualized Average Gain 15.4% 14.6% 13.2% 12.0% 12.2% 11.7% 9.1% 6.7% 8.4%
Annualized Median Gain 12.1% 10.6% 9.8% 9.3% 8.2% 7.3% 6.0% 1.1% 3.1%
















For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Also read:

Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety

Beneficient Predictability Rank Related Terms

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Beneficient (Beneficient) Business Description

Industry
GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Financial Services » Asset Management » Beneficient (NAS:BENF) » Definitions » Predictability Rank
Comparable Companies
SAMG IHIT NPV OXSQ EOD IGI BSL PTMN MHI PCK BLK BX OSTO:INVE A KKR TSX:BN APO BK AMP XSWX:PGHN LSE:III
Traded in Other Exchanges
N/A
Address
325 N. Saint Paul Street, Suite 4850, Dallas, TX, USA, 75201
Website
https://www.trustben.com
Beneficient is a technology-enabled financial services holding company that (together with its subsidiaries) provides simple, rapid, and cost-effective liquidity solutions to participants in the alternative asset industry through its end-to-end online platform, AltAccess. BCG's products and services are designed to meet the unmet needs of mid-to-high net-worth individual investors, small-to-midsize institutional investors, family offices, and fund general partners. Its bespoke liquidity solutions for otherwise illiquid alternative asset investments are delivered through proprietary technology and an innovative financing and trust structure. It has three reportable segments consisting of Ben Liquidity, Ben Custody and Customer ExAlt Trusts.
Executives
Gwg Wind Down Trust 10 percent owner PO BOX 61209, 700 SMITH ST., HOUSTON TX 77208-1209
Elizabeth C. Freeman 10 percent owner PO BOX 61209, 700 SMITH ST., HOUSTON TX 77208-1209
Derek L. Fletcher director, officer: See Remarks 325 N. ST. PAUL STREET, SUITE 4850, DALLAS TX 75201
Gwg Life Usa, Llc 10 percent owner 325 NORTH ST. PAUL STREET, SUITE 2650, DALLAS TX 75201
Gregory W. Ezell officer: Chief Financial Officer 325 N. ST. PAUL STREET, SUITE 4850, DALLAS TX 75201
Jeff Welday officer: See Remarks 325 N. ST. PAUL STREET, SUITE 4850, DALLAS TX 75201
Maria S. Rutledge officer: Chief Technology Officer 325 N. ST. PAUL STREET, SUITE 4850, DALLAS TX 75201
Scott W. Wilson officer: Chief Underwriting Officer 325 N. ST. PAUL STREET, SUITE 4850, DALLAS TX 75201
Samuel Hikspoors officer: Chief Risk Officer 325 N. ST. PAUL STREET, SUITE 4850, DALLAS TX 75201
Richard W Fisher director
James G. Silk director, officer: See Remarks 325 N. ST. PAUL STREET, SUITE 4850, DALLAS TX 75201
Emily B. Hill director 325 N. ST. PAUL STREET, SUITE 4850, DALLAS TX 75201
Gwg Holdings, Inc. 10 percent owner 325 N. ST. PAUL STREET, SUITE 2650, DALLAS TX 75201
Cangany Peter T Jr director 220 SOUTH 6TH STREET, SUITE 1200, MINNEAPOLIS MN 55402
Brad K Heppner director, officer: See Remarks 325 N SAINT PAUL STREET, SUITE 1200, DALLAS TX 75201