Butterfly Network (Butterfly Network) Predictability Rank

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What is Butterfly Network Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Butterfly Network Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Butterfly Network (Butterfly Network) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Healthcare » Medical Devices & Instruments » Butterfly Network Inc (NYSE:BFLY) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

1600 District Avenue, Guilford, Burlington, MA, USA, 01803

Website

https://www.butterflynetwork.com

Butterfly Network Inc is a digital health business transforming care with handheld, whole-body ultrasound. Powered by its proprietary Ultrasound-on-Chip technology, its solution enables the acquisition of imaging information from an affordable, powerful device that fits in a healthcare professional's pocket with a combination of cloud-connected software and hardware technology that is easily accessed through a mobile application. Butterfly enables the practical application of ultrasound information in the clinical workflow. Butterfly iQ+ is an ultrasound device that can perform whole-body imaging in a single handheld probe using semiconductor technology. With its small, handheld size, low cost, and simple user interface.

Executives

Andrei G Stoica	officer: Chief Technology Officer	1000 CEDAR HOLLOW ROAD, MALVERN PA 19355
Heather C Getz	officer: EVP & Chief Financial Officer	BIOTELEMETRY, INC., 1000 CEDAR HOLLOW ROAD, #102, MALVERN PA 19355
Joseph Devivo	director, officer: President & CEO	BUTTERFLY NETWORK, INC., 1600 DISTRICT AVENUE, BURLINGTON MA 01803
Lawrence T Weiss	officer: CLO, GC and Corp Sec	530 OLD WHITFIELD STREET, GUILFOD CT 06437
John David Martin	officer: Chief Medical Officer	C/O BUTTERFLY NETWORK, INC., 530 OLD WHITFIELD STREET, GUILFORD CT 06437
Darius Shahida	officer: CSO & CBDO	C/O BUTTERFLY NETWORK, INC., 530 OLD WHITFIELD STREET, GUILFORD CT 203-689-56
Troy Quander	officer: SVP, Regulatory and Quality	530 OLD WHITFIELD STREET, C/O BUTTERFLY NETWORK, INC., GUILFORD CT 06437
Tamara Dillon	officer: Chief People Officer	530 OLD WHITFIELD STREET, GUILFORD CT 06437
Stephanie Fielding	officer: Chief Financial Officer	C/O BUTTERFLY NETWORK, INC., 530 OLD WHITFIELD STREET, GUILFORD CT 06437
Larry Robbins	director, 10 percent owner	767 FIFTH AVENUE, 44TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10153
Mary Miller	officer: GC and CS	C/O BUTTERFLY NETWORK, INC., 530 OLD WHITFIELD STREET, GUILFORD CT 06437
Stacey Pugh	officer: Chief Commercial Officer	C/O BUTTERFLY NETWORK, INC., 530 OLD WHITFIELD STREET, GUILFORD CT 06437
Todd Fruchterman	director, officer: President and CEO	C/O BUTTERFLY NETWORK, INC., 530 OLD WHITFIELD STREET, GUILFORD CT 06437
Erica Schwartz	director	400 INTERSTATE N. PARKWAY SE, SUITE 1600, C/O AVEANNA HEALTHCARE HOLDINGS INC., ATLANTA GA 30339
David Perri	officer: Chief Operating Officer	C/O SONOS, INC., 614 CHAPALA STREET, SANTA BARBARA CA 93101