Barings Global Short Duration High Yield Fund (Barings Global Short Duration High Yield Fund) Predictability Rank

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What is Barings Global Short Duration High Yield Fund Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Barings Global Short Duration High Yield Fund Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Barings Global Short Duration High Yield Fund (Barings Global Short Duration High Yield Fund) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Financial Services » Asset Management » Barings Global Short Duration High Yield Fund (NYSE:BGH) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

300 South Tryon Street, Suite 2500, Charlotte, NC, USA, 28202

Website

http://www.Barings.com

Barings Global Short Duration High Yield Fund is a diversified, closed-end management investment company. Its investment objective is to seek as high a level of current income as the Adviser determines is consistent with capital preservation.

Executives

Eric Partlan	other: Adviser Board Member	BARINGS LLC, 300 S. TRYON STREET, SUITE 2500, CHARLOTTE NC 28202
Gregory Wayne Maccordy	other: Chief Compliance Officer	6 LAMPLIGHT LANE, WESTPORT CT 06880
Ashlee Steinnerd	officer: Chief Legal Officer	BARINGS LLC, 300 S. TRYON STREET, SUITE 2500, CHARLOTTE NC 28202
Michael Freno	officer: Vice President	BARINGS LLC, 300 SOUTH TRYON STREET, SUITE 2500, CHARLOTTE NC 28202
Benjamin Tecmire	officer: Chief Compliance Officer	BARINGS LLC, 300 S. TRYON STREET, SUITE 2500, CHARLOTTE NC 28202
Roger W Crandall	other: Adviser Board Member	MASSACHUSETTS MUTUAL LIFE INSURANCE CO, 1295 STATE STREET, SPRINGFIELD MA 01111
Christopher Hanscom	officer: Treasurer	BARINGS LLC, 1500 MAIN STREET PO BOX 15189, SPRINGFIELD MA 01115-5189
Eric J Lloyd	other: Officer of Adviser	BARINGS LLC, 300 SOUTH TRYON STREET, SUITE 2500, CHARLOTTE NC 28202
Mark F Mulhern	director	410 S. WILMINGTON STREET, RALEIGH NC 27601
Jill Olmstead	other: Trustee	BARINGS LLC, 3300 SOUTH TRYON STREET SUITE 2500, CHARLOTTE NC 28202
David Mihalick	director	BARINGS LLC, 300 SOUTH TRYON ST., STE 2500, CHARLOTTE NC 28202
Rodney J Dillman	other: Trustee	BARINGS LLC, 300 SOUTH TRYON STREET, SUITE 2500, CHARLOTTE NC 28202
Elizabeth A. Murray	officer: Treasurer	BARINGS LLC, 300 SOUTH TRYON STREET, SUITE 2500, CHARLOTTE NC 28202
Mark Senkpiel	other: Investment Personnel	BARINGS LLC, 300 SOUTH TRYON STREET, SUITE 2500, CHARLOTTE NC 28202
Christopher Cary	other: Officer of Adviser	BARINGS LLC, 300 SOUTH TRYON STREET SUITE 2500, CHARLOTTE NC 28202