BLFS (BioLife Solutions) Predictability Rank

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What is BioLife Solutions Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

BioLife Solutions Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

BioLife Solutions Predictability Rank Related Terms

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BioLife Solutions Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Healthcare » Medical Devices & Instruments » BioLife Solutions Inc (NAS:BLFS) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

BJX1:Germany BJX1:Germany

Address

3303 Monte Villa Parkway, Suite 310, Bothell, WA, USA, 98021

Website

https://www.biolifesolutions.com

BioLife Solutions Inc is a life sciences company that develops, manufactures, and markets bioproduction products and services that are designed to improve quality and de-risk biologic manufacturing, distribution, and transportation in the cell and gene therapy ("CGT") industry. The company provides solutions such as Cell Processing, Cold Chain, and Thawing. The company generates the majority of its revenue from Cell Processing through the biopreservation product "CryoStor". Geographically the company generates the majority of its revenue from the United States.

Executives

Sarah Aebersold	officer: VP, Global Human Resources	BIOLIFE SOLUTIONS, INC., 3303 MONTE VILLA PARKWAY, BOTHELL WA 98021
Troy Wichterman	officer: Chief Financial Officer	3303 MONTE VILLA PARKWAY, BOTHELL WA 98021
Aby J. Mathew	officer: Chief Tech. Officer & Sr. VP	3303 MONTE VILLA PARKWAY, #310, BOTHELL WA 98021
Todd Berard	officer: Vice President, Marketing	3303 MONTE VILLA PARKWAY, SUITE 310, BOTHELL WA 98021
Karen A. Foster	officer: Vice President of Operations	C/O BIOLIFE SOLUTIONS, INC., 3303 MONTE VILLA PARKWAY, SUITE 310, BOTHELL WA 98021
Amy Duross	director	8410 GOLDEN BEAR PLACE, WHISTLER A1 V8E 1J7
Greef Roderick De	director
Garrie Richardson	officer: Chief Revenue Officer	3303 MONTE VILA PARKWAY, BOTHELL WA 98021
Geraint Phillips	officer: SVP, Global Operations	3303 MONTE VILLA, #310, BOTHELL WA 98021
Michael Rice	director, officer: President & CEO	C/O BIOLIFE SOLUTIONS, INC., 171 FRONT STREET, OWEGO NY 13827
Casdin Partners Master Fund, L.p.	10 percent owner	WALKER HOUSE, 87 MARY STREET, GEORGE TOWN E9 KY1-9001
Marcus Schulz	officer: Vice President, Global Sales	3303 MONTE VILLA PARKWAY, SUITE 310, BOTHELL WA 98021
Joseph C Schick	director	16719 NE 139TH PLACE, WOODINVILLE WA 98072
Timothy L. Moore	director	C/O KITE PHARMA, INC., 2225 COLORADO AVE., SANTA MONICA CA 90404
Joydeep Goswami	director	SUMITOMO FUDOSAN MITA TWIN BLDG, EAST WING 4-2-8 SHIBAURA MINATO-KU, TOKYO M0 1080023