What is BioLargo Predictability Rank?
1 (5)
Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:
1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.
It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.
GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.
BioLargo Predictability Rank Calculation
In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.
Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:
Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.
The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.
Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns
| Predictables | Non-Predictable | All stocks |
|---|
| Total Number of stocks | 570 | 1833 | 2403 |
| Total Lost Money | 61 | 830 | 891 |
| Total Lost More Than 50% | 18 | 412 | 430 |
| Total Lost More Than 90% | 4 | 86 | 90 |
| Average Gain | 260.6% | 100.0% | 138.1% |
| Median Gain | 150.0% | 13.0% | 39.0% |
| Maximum Gain | 2852.0% | 11483.0% | 11483.0% |
| Maximum Loss | -100.0% | -100.0% | -100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain | 12.7% | 6.7% | 8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain | 8.9% | 1.1% | 3.1% |
For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.
| Predictability Rank | 5-Star | 4.5-Star | 4-Star | 3.5-Star | 3-Star | 2.5-Star | 2-Star | 1-Star (non-predictable) | Average among all |
|---|
| % Out of All 2403 Stocks |
3.3% |
2.9% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
3.3% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
76.3% |
100% |
| % that are in Loss (10y) |
3% |
10% |
8% |
9% |
11% |
18% |
16% |
45% |
37% |
| Average Gain (10y) |
364.6% |
330.9% |
278.0% |
235.1% |
243.5% |
227.8% |
154.8% |
100.0% |
138.1% |
| Median Gain (10y) |
238.5% |
193.5% |
171.0% |
159.0% |
132.5% |
113.5% |
87.0% |
13.0% |
39.0% |
| Maximum Gainer |
2228.0% |
2547.0% |
2452.0% |
2852.0% |
2432.0% |
1892.0% |
1807.0% |
11483.0% |
11483.0% |
| Maximum Loser |
-82.0% |
-53.0% |
-67.0% |
-100.0% |
-83.0% |
-100.0% |
-78.0% |
-100.0% |
-100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain |
15.4% |
14.6% |
13.2% |
12.0% |
12.2% |
11.7% |
9.1% |
6.7% |
8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain |
12.1% |
10.6% |
9.8% |
9.3% |
8.2% |
7.3% |
6.0% |
1.1% |
3.1% |
For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank
Also read:
Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety
BioLargo (BioLargo) Business Description
Traded in Other Exchanges
N/A
Address
14921 Chestnut Street, Westminster, CA, USA, 92683
BioLargo Inc invents, develops, and commercializes platform technologies to solve challenging environmental problems like PFAS contamination, advanced water, and wastewater treatment, industrial odor, and VOC control, air quality control, and infection control. The company holds a wide array of issued patents, maintains a robust pipeline of products, and provides full-service environmental engineering. BioLargo invents or acquires novel technologies and develops them to maturity through its operating subsidiaries. It monetizes through direct sales, recurring service contracts, licensing agreements, strategic joint venture formation, and/or the sale of the IP. The firm's technologies are commercially available and are advancing as disrupters in their respective markets.
Executives
| Linda Park |
director |
14921 CHESTNUT STREET, WESTMINSTER CA 92683 |
| Christina Elaine Bray |
director |
PO BOX 234, FREDERICK CO 80530 |
| Jack B. Strommen |
director |
7108 31ST AVENUE N., MINNEAPOLIS MN 55427 |
| Roberts Kent Charles Ii |
director |
1146 OXFORD ROAD, SAN MARINO CA 91108 |
| John S. Runyan |
director |
30001 HILLSIDE TERRACE, SAN JUAN CAPISTRANO CA 92675 |
| Dennis E Marshall |
director |
3500 W. GARRY AVENUE, SANTA ANA CA 92705 |
| Dennis P Calvert |
director, 10 percent owner, officer: Chief Executive Officer |
3500 GARRY AVE, SANTA ANA CA 92704 |
| New Millennium Capital Partners, Llc |
10 percent owner |
16333 PHOEBE AVENUE, LA MIRADA CA 90638 |
| Charles K Dargan |
officer: Chief Financial Officer |
8055 W. MANCHESTER AVE., SUITE 405, PLAYA DEL REY CA 90293 |
| Joseph L Provenzano |
director, officer: Corporate Secretary |
3500 W. GARRY AVENUE, SANTA ANA CA 92704 |
| Iowc Technologies, Inc. |
10 percent owner |
2603 MAIN STREET, SUITE 1155, IRVINE CA 92614 |
| Kenneth Reay Code |
10 percent owner |
16150 HERON AVENUE, LA MIRADA CA 90638 |
| Gary Adrian Cox |
director |
3500 W. GARRY AVENUE, SANTA ANA CA 92705 |
| Steven V Harrison |
director |
|
| Eduardo Ruiz |
director, 10 percent owner |
|
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