BOC (Boston Omaha) Predictability Rank

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What is Boston Omaha Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Boston Omaha Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Boston Omaha Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Industrials » Conglomerates » Boston Omaha Corp (NYSE:BOC) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

42S:Germany

Address

1601 Dodge Street, Suite 3300, Omaha, NE, USA, 68102

Website

https://www.bostonomaha.com

Boston Omaha Corp is a us-based company which invests in real estate. Its operations include its ownership of multiple billboards in Florida, Georgia, Wisconsin, and Alabama and equity method investments in several real estate companies. The company operates four separate lines of business, outdoor billboard advertising, the broadband services industry, the insurance industry, and the asset management industry. They generate revenue from outdoor advertising through the leasing of advertising space on billboards. It also generate revenue from commissions on surety bond sales and account for commissions and principally from internet services and is recognized on a straight-line basis over the term of the contract in the period the services are rendered.

Executives

Adam K Peterson	10 percent owner	1601 DODGE STREET, SUITE 3300, OMAHA NE 68102
Joseph Max Meisinger	officer: Chief Accounting Officer	BOSTON OMAHA CORPORATION, 1601 DODGE STREET, SUITE 3300, OMAHA NE 68102
Kenan Frank H. Ii	director	C/O BOSTON OMAHA CORPORATION.,, 292 NEWBURY ST. SUITE 333, BOSTON MA 02115
Joshua Paul Weisenburger	officer: Chief Financial Officer	1411 HARNEY ST. SUITE 200, OMAHA NE 68102
Jeffrey C Royal	director	5420 NICHOLAS STREET, OMAHA NE 68132
Bradford B Briner	director	705 GIMGHOUL ROAD, CHAPEL HILL NC 27514
Vishnu Srinivasan	director	C/O BOSTON OMAHA CORPORATION, 292 NEWBURY ST. SUITE 333, BOSTON MA 02115
Alexander Buffett Rozek	director, 10 percent owner, officer: Co-Chief Executive Officer	292 NEWBURY ST #333, BOSTON MA 02115
Brendan Joseph Keating	director	8918 SPANISH RIDGE AVENUE, SUITE 100, LAS VEGAS NV 89148
Steven Charles Mcghie	officer: See Remarks	BOSTON OMAHA CORPORATION, 1601 DODGE STREET, SUITE 3300, OMAHA NE 68102
David John Herman	officer: See Remarks	BOSTON OMAHA CORPORATION, 1601 DODGE STREET, SUITE 3300, OMAHA NE 68102
Boulderado Group, Llc	other: Manager is Director and Co-CEO	292 NEWBURY STREET, SUITE 333, BOSTON MA 02115
Magnolia Boc Ii, Lp	10 percent owner	1411 HARNEY ST., SUITE 200, OMAHA NE 68102
Magnolia Capital Fund, Lp	10 percent owner	1601 DODGE STREET, SUITE 3300, OMAHA NE 68102
William Scott Lafoy	officer: CEO of Link Media Holdings,LLC	C/O LINK MEDIA OUTDOOR, 200 MANSELL CT. EAST, BLDG 200 STE. 360, ROSWELL GA 30076