BRID (Bridgford Foods) Predictability Rank

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What is Bridgford Foods Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Bridgford Foods Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Bridgford Foods Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Consumer Defensive » Consumer Packaged Goods » Bridgford Foods Corp (NAS:BRID) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

1707 South Good-Latimer Expressway, Dallas, TX, USA, 75226

Website

https://www.bridgford.com

Bridgford Foods Corp manufactures, markets, and distributes frozen and snack food products in the United States. The business segments are; the processing and distribution of frozen products, and the processing and distribution of snack food products. Its product offerings include meat snacks, breads and rolls, biscuits, and ready-to-eat sandwiches among others. The company offers frozen food products to the foodservice and retail customers through wholesalers, cooperatives, and distributors; and snack food items to supermarkets, and mass merchandise and convenience retail stores through customer-owned distribution centers, as well as a direct store delivery network. A majority of the company's revenue is derived from the snack food products segment.

Executives

Richard Eugene Bridgford	other: VP, Ind. Relations & Safety	170 N GREEN ST, CHICAGO IL 60607
Baron Bridgford	other: President, BFI.	P.O. BOX 3773, ANAHEIM CA 92803
Allan Jr. Bridgford	director	515 MARGUERITE AVENUE, CORONA DEL MAR CA 92625
Brian E. Bridgford	other: V.P. Production	170 N. GREEN STREET, CHICAGO IL 60661
Juan Luis Silva	other: V.P. Plant Superintendent	3414 STONE CREEK DR, JOLIET IL 60435
Dennis Gregory Scott	director	9595 WILSHIRE BLVD., SUITE 710, BEVERLY HILLS CA 90212
Christopher William Cole	other: Senior Vice President	1415 W. 44TH STREET, CHICAGO IL 60609
Bridgford Baron R.h. Ii	officer: President	1415 W. 44TH STREET, CHICAGO IL 60609
Cindy Matthews-morales	officer: CFO, Secretary	1308 N. PATT STREET, ANAHEIM CA 92801
Michael W. Bridgford	officer: Chairman of the Board	1308 N. PATT STREET, ANAHEIM CA 92801
Mary S Schott	director	2990 AIRWAY AVENUE, BUILDING A, COSTA MESA CA 92626
Debra Aileen Dealcuaz	other: Treasurer, Bridgford Indust.	6432 CONNIE LANE, ROCKWALL TX 75032
Bruce Bridgford	director	P.O. BOX 3773, ANAHEIM CA 92803
William L Bridgford	director, officer: Chairman	P.O. BOX 3773, ANAHEIM CA 92803
Raymond F. Lancy	director, officer: CFO, TREAS, ASST SEC	1308 N. PATT ST.,, ANAHEIM CA 92801