Barnwell Industries (Barnwell Industries) Predictability Rank

View and export this data going back to 1984. Start your Free Trial

What is Barnwell Industries Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Barnwell Industries Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Barnwell Industries Predictability Rank Related Terms

Thank you for viewing the detailed overview of Barnwell Industries's Predictability Rank provided by GuruFocus.com. Please click on the following links to see related term pages.

Barnwell Industries (Barnwell Industries) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Energy » Oil & Gas » Barnwell Industries Inc (AMEX:BRN) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

1100 Alakea Street, Suite 500, Honolulu, HI, USA, 96813-2840

Website

https://www.brninc.com

Barnwell Industries Inc is an oil and gas firm. Its areas of operations include acquiring, developing, producing, and selling oil and natural gas. The company acquires and develops crude oil and natural gas assets. The company's operating segment includes Oil and natural gas, Contract drilling, Land investment, and Others. It generates maximum revenue from the Oil and natural gas segment. It operates in two geographical segments the United States, which generates a majority of revenue, and Canada.

Executives

Joshua Horowitz	director	72-38 113TH STREET, APARTMENT 3L, FOREST HILLS NY 11375
Ned L Sherwood	10 percent owner	54 MORRIS LN, SCARSDALE NY 10583
Ned L. Sherwood Revocable Trust	10 percent owner	151 TERRAPIN POINT, VERO BEACH FL 32963
Mrmp Managers Llc	10 percent owner	C/O SOUTH DAKOTA TRUST COMPANY LLC, 201 SOUTH PHILIPS AVENUE, STE 200, SIOUX FALLS SD 57104-6449
Alexander C Kinzler	director, officer: President and COO	1100 ALAKEA STREET, SUITE 2900, HONOLULU HI 96813
Laurance Elliot Narbut	director	3324 WOODSIDE ROAD, WOODSIDE CA 94062
Douglas N Woodrum	director	C/O BARNWELL INDUSTRIES, INC., 1100 ALAKEA STREET, SUITE 2900, HONOLULU HI 96813
Francis J. Kelly	director	10402 PATRICIAN WOODS COURT, GREAT FALLS VA 22066
Joseph Eugene Magaro	10 percent owner	401 RIVERSVILLE ROAD, GREENWICH CT 06831
O'farrell Colin R.	director	3465 N. PINES WAY, SUITE 104-PMB 22, WILSON WY 83014
Peter J. O'malley	director	150 TABLE ROCK ROAD, ALTA WY 83414
Russell M Gifford	director, officer: EVP,CFO, Treasurer	1100 ALAKEA STREET, SUITE 2900, HONOLULU HI 96813
Kenneth S Grossman	director	18 NORFOLK RD, GREAT NECK NY 11020
Philip James Mcpherson	director	417 31ST STREET, UNIT A, NEWPORT BEACH CA 92663
Bradley M Tirpak	director	50 ORCHARD ST., NEW YORK NY 10002