BTAX (Biostax) Predictability Rank

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What is Biostax Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Biostax Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Biostax Predictability Rank Related Terms

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Biostax Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Healthcare » Biotechnology » Biostax Corp (OTCPK:BTAX) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

2431 Aloma Avenue, Suite 124, Winter Park, FL, USA, 32792

Website

https://www.biostaxcorp.com

Biostax Corp is a biotechnology company utilizing the Biostax Development Engine, is a developer and marketer of pharmaceutical, biotechnology and MedTech products that have a well-defined path to market. The company is focused on driving the development and commercialization of proprietary mechanisms to prevent, intercept and improve these diseases at affordable cost. It is a therapeutic and health tech agnostic, constantly seeking assets with low acquisition costs and high growth opportunities having significant clinical and commercial potential.

Executives

Glen A Farmer	officer: Chief Financial Officer	20358 SENECA MEADOWS PARKWAY, GERMANTOWN MD 20876
H. Louis Salomonsky Jr. Revocable Trust	10 percent owner	2431 ALOMA AVE, SUITE 124, WINTER PARK FL 32792
Henry Louis Salomonsky	director, 10 percent owner	2431 ALOMA AVE, SUITE 124, WINTER PARK FL 32792
Kelly O'brien Wilson	10 percent owner, officer: COO and ICEO and IP	2431 ALOMA AVE, SUITE 124, WINTER PARK FL 32792
James Norman Curley	other: Member of 10% owner group	410 DAHLIA AVE, CORONA DEL MAR CA 92625
Empower Insurance Corp Ltd	other: Member of 10% owner group	1254 LEEWARD HIGHWAY, 4 CARIBBEAN PLACE, PROVIDENCIALES W7 TKCA1ZZ
Global Reverb Corp	10 percent owner, other: Member of 10% owner group	100 S EOLA DR, UNIT 1703, ORLANDO FL 32801
Paul Puskadi	other: Member of 10% owner group	2020 TIGERTAIL BLVD, 7A, DANIA BEACH FL 33004
Deane Rhodes	other: Member of 10% owner group	9200 HALSEY CIRCLE NE, TUSCALOOSA AL 35406
Roger Dale Bozarth	other: Member of 10% owner group	9028 GREAT HERON CIR, ORLANDO FL 32836
Joel Yanowitz	other: Member of 10% owner group	100 TAMAL PLZ, SUITE 106, CORTE MADERA CA 94925
Rogoff Family Trust Dtd	other: Member of 10% owner group	20701 N SCOTTSDALE DR, ST 107-501, SCOTTSDALE AZ 85255
George Sasko	other: Member of 10% owner group	515 WESTCHESTER DR, STE D, CAMPBELL CA 95008
Raster Investments, Inc	other: Member of 10% owner group	2384 ORCHARD CREST BLVD, MANASQUAN NJ 08736
Robert Jackman Dailey	other: Member of 10% owner group	401 FIRST STREET, LOS ALTOS CA 94022