BTCS (BTCS) Predictability Rank

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What is BTCS Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

BTCS Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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BTCS Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Financial Services » Capital Markets » BTCS Inc (NAS:BTCS) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

BIC:Germany BIC:Germany

Address

9466 Georgia Avenue, Suite 124, Silver Spring, MD, USA, 20910

Website

https://www.btcs.com

BTCS Inc is engaged in the business of hosting an online e-commerce marketplace where consumers can purchase merchandise using Digital Assets, including bitcoin. The company focuses on blockchain and Digital Asset ecosystems. The firm operates a beta e-commerce marketplace, which accepts a range of digital currencies, has designed a beta secure digital currency storage solution BTCS Wallet. The Company's blockchain infrastructure operations include two primary revenue-generating activities: Ethereum block building and validator node operations.

Executives

Michal Handerhan	director, 10 percent owner, officer: COO and Chairman	10020 RAYNOR DR, SILVER SPRING MD 20901
Charles W Allen	director, 10 percent owner, officer: CEO and CFO and Director	1881 N. NASH STREET, UNIT 701, ARLINGTON VA 22209
Melanie Pump	director	9466 GEORGIA AVENUE #124, SILVER SPRING MD 20910
Manish Paranjape	officer: Chief Technology Officer	9466 GEORGIA AVENUE #124, SILVER SPRING MD 20910
Prevoznik Michael Edward Jr	officer: Chief Financial Officer	9466 GEORGIA AVENUE #124, SILVER SPRING MD 20910
Andrew Lee	officer: Chief Financial Officer	9466 GEORGIA AVENUE #124, SILVER SPRING MD 20910
Charles Benjamin Lee	director	1525 MIRAMONTE AVE #3451, LOS ALTOS CA 94024
Van Cleef Carol R	director	9466 GEORGIA AVENUE #124, SILVER SPRING MD 20910
David Garrity	director	157 EAST 32ND STREET, APT. 19B, NEW YORK NY 10016
Jonathan R Read	director	6711 E. CAMELBACK RD, #32, SCOTTSDALE AZ 85251
Kiser Charles Arlen Jr.	10 percent owner, officer: Chief Marketing Officer	1701 N. KENT ST., ARLINGTON VA 22209
Timothy Andrew Sidie	director, 10 percent owner, officer: CTO and Director	8022 LAKETOWNE CT., SEVERN MD 21144