BUR (Burford Capital) Predictability Rank


BUR Burford Capital Ltd BUR
63 GF Score
Price $4.11
GF Value $5.54
Valuation Modestly Undervalued
! 1 Warning Sign
View Full Analysis

What is Burford Capital Predictability Rank?

1.5 (5)

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Burford Capital Predictability Rank Related Terms

BUR
63GF Score
Burford Capital Ltd BUR
Predictability Rank is just one metric. See GF Score™, valuation, warning signs, and more.
View Full Analysis

Burford Capital Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

PredictablesNon-PredictableAll stocks
Total Number of stocks57018332403
Total Lost Money61830891
Total Lost More Than 50%18412430
Total Lost More Than 90%48690
Average Gain260.6%100.0%138.1%
Median Gain150.0%13.0%39.0%
Maximum Gain2852.0%11483.0%11483.0%
Maximum Loss-100.0%-100.0%-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain12.7%6.7%8.4%
Annualized Median Gain8.9%1.1%3.1%


















For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank5-Star4.5-Star4-Star3.5-Star3-Star2.5-Star2-Star1-Star (non-predictable)Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks 3.3% 2.9% 3.7% 3.3% 3.3% 3.7% 3.3% 76.3% 100%
% that are in Loss (10y) 3% 10% 8% 9% 11% 18% 16% 45% 37%
Average Gain (10y) 364.6% 330.9% 278.0% 235.1% 243.5% 227.8% 154.8% 100.0% 138.1%
Median Gain (10y) 238.5% 193.5% 171.0% 159.0% 132.5% 113.5% 87.0% 13.0% 39.0%
Maximum Gainer 2228.0% 2547.0% 2452.0% 2852.0% 2432.0% 1892.0% 1807.0% 11483.0% 11483.0%
Maximum Loser -82.0% -53.0% -67.0% -100.0% -83.0% -100.0% -78.0% -100.0% -100.0%
Annualized Average Gain 15.4% 14.6% 13.2% 12.0% 12.2% 11.7% 9.1% 6.7% 8.4%
Annualized Median Gain 12.1% 10.6% 9.8% 9.3% 8.2% 7.3% 6.0% 1.1% 3.1%
















For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Also read:

Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety

Is Burford Capital (BUR) Overvalued in 2026?

Based on GuruFocus' analysis, Burford Capital stock appears to be undervalued. The current stock price of $4.11 is trading 25.8% below its estimated GF Value™ of $5.54. GuruFocus considers Burford Capital to be Modestly Undervalued.

Key valuation signals for BUR:

  • Predictability Rank:
  • GF Value™: $5.54 vs. price of $4.11 (25.8% below fair value)
  • GF Score™: 63/100 with 1 warning sign

No single metric tells the full story. See the BUR stock analysis page for a complete view including 30-year financials, guru trades, and insider activity.

Burford Capital Business Description

Other Exchanges BURl:UKBUR:UK9BF:Germany
Address Hirzel Street, Oak House, St Peter Port, GGY, GY1 2NP
Burford Capital Ltd provides capital against the underlying value of litigation and legal assets, known as legal finance, serving the legal industry with financial products and services. Its business is funding clients engaged in ongoing legal disputes to pay legal fees and monetize the expected future value of disputes, focusing on large, complex matters. The company has two reportable segments: Principal Finance, which earns maximum revenue and allocates capital to legal finance assets from its balance sheet and through interests in private funds managed by the company, and Asset Management and Other Services, which manages legal finance assets for third-party investors and provides other services to the legal industry.
63GF Score

Get the complete analysis for BUR

Predictability Rank is just one metric. See GF Value™, 30-year financials, guru trades, warning signs, and more.

$4.11
Price
$5.54
GF Value