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CAPC (Capstone) Predictability Rank


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What is Capstone Predictability Rank?

1 (5)

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.


Capstone Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

PredictablesNon-PredictableAll stocks
Total Number of stocks57018332403
Total Lost Money61830891
Total Lost More Than 50%18412430
Total Lost More Than 90%48690
Average Gain260.6%100.0%138.1%
Median Gain150.0%13.0%39.0%
Maximum Gain2852.0%11483.0%11483.0%
Maximum Loss-100.0%-100.0%-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain12.7%6.7%8.4%
Annualized Median Gain8.9%1.1%3.1%


















For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank5-Star4.5-Star4-Star3.5-Star3-Star2.5-Star2-Star1-Star (non-predictable)Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks 3.3% 2.9% 3.7% 3.3% 3.3% 3.7% 3.3% 76.3% 100%
% that are in Loss (10y) 3% 10% 8% 9% 11% 18% 16% 45% 37%
Average Gain (10y) 364.6% 330.9% 278.0% 235.1% 243.5% 227.8% 154.8% 100.0% 138.1%
Median Gain (10y) 238.5% 193.5% 171.0% 159.0% 132.5% 113.5% 87.0% 13.0% 39.0%
Maximum Gainer 2228.0% 2547.0% 2452.0% 2852.0% 2432.0% 1892.0% 1807.0% 11483.0% 11483.0%
Maximum Loser -82.0% -53.0% -67.0% -100.0% -83.0% -100.0% -78.0% -100.0% -100.0%
Annualized Average Gain 15.4% 14.6% 13.2% 12.0% 12.2% 11.7% 9.1% 6.7% 8.4%
Annualized Median Gain 12.1% 10.6% 9.8% 9.3% 8.2% 7.3% 6.0% 1.1% 3.1%
















For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Also read:

Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety

Capstone Predictability Rank Related Terms

Thank you for viewing the detailed overview of Capstone's Predictability Rank provided by GuruFocus.com. Please click on the following links to see related term pages.


Capstone Business Description

Traded in Other Exchanges
N/A
Address
No. 144-V, Fairway Drive, Suite 100, Deerfield Beach, FL, USA, 33441
Capstone Companies Inc is a designer, promoter, and licensor of internet-connected smart consumer products to simplify daily living through technology. Its current product is the Connected Chef kitchen tablet, which is a purpose-built kitchen tablet with an accessory platform to accommodate food prep accessories such as a cutting board. The company focuses on licensing the Connected Chef to third parties for the product's promotion, marketing, production, and sales or distribution. In addition, it is also engaged in the development of a health, fitness, and social activities business at dedicated facilities as a long-term business line. The company operates in a single reportable segment, which is Consumer Home Goods.
Executives
Aimee C Gaudet officer: Corporate Secretary 431 FAIRWAY DRIVE, SUITE 200, DEERFIELD BEACH FL 33441
Mindy Postal other: Spouse of Jeffrey Postal 333 LOS OLAS WAY, APT 1410, FT. LAUDERDALE FL 33301
Jeffrey Postal director GRAND EALLERIA 220, 46-46 NORRE GRANDE, ST THOMAS VSVI U8 90278
Hung James Siu King other: Mgr/Dir of Capstone HK FLAT H 16/F TOWER 11 LAGUNA VERDE, 8 LAGUNA VERDE HUNG HOM, KOWLOON K3 999077
James G Mcclinton director, officer: COO 3021 OLD ORCHARD ROAD, DAVIE FL 33328
Jeffrey J Guzy director 3130 19TH STREET, NORTH, ARLINGTON VA 22201
Larry Paul Sloven director APARTMENT 3004, 512 NORTH MCCLURG COURT, CHICAGO IL 60611
Stewart Wallach director 350 JIM MORAN BLVD - SUITE # 121, DEERFIELD BEACH FL 33442
William Dato director, officer: Pres Complete Pwer Solutns LLC 4100 NORTH POWERLINE ROAD, BUILDING O, UNIT 3, POMPANO BEACH FL 33073
Lorenzo Cesar Lamadrid director 1424 WEST 28 STREET, MIAMI BEACH FL 33140
Margaret Fisher 10 percent owner 9009 POTOMAC FOREST DRIVE, GREAT FALLS VA 22066
Wong Cora director 1826HARPER AVE, REDONDO BEACH CA 90278
Howard Ullman director, 10 percent owner, officer: CEO 12535 ORANGE DR, STE 613, DAVIE FL 38330
Laurie Holtz director 1826 W 23 STREET, ISLAND 3, MIAMI BEACH FL 33140
Bart S Fisher 10 percent owner 9009 POTOMAC FOREST DRIVE, GREAT FALLS VA 22066

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