CAPS (Capstone Holding) Predictability Rank

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What is Capstone Holding Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Capstone Holding Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Capstone Holding Predictability Rank Related Terms

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Capstone Holding Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Basic Materials » Building Materials » Capstone Holding Corp (NAS:CAPS) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

5141 West 122nd Street, Suite 104, Alsip, IL, USA, 60803

Website

http://www.capstonethx.com

Capstone Holding Corp is a building products distribution network. The existing network is comprised of Instone, a distributor of thin veneer stone and related masonry products in the United States, serving both residential and commercial construction markets. The company's product offering includes manufactured and natural stone products, supported by a distribution network. The company's current products include stone veneer, landscape stone, and modular masonry fireplaces.

Executives

Alimco Financial Corp	other: See Remarks	2336 S.E. OCEAN BOULEVARD SUITE 400, STUART FL 34996
Neil S Subin	10 percent owner	2336 S.E. OCEAN BOULEVARD, #400, STUART FL 34996
Miller Lloyd I Iii	10 percent owner
Michael Toporek	director, other: See Explanation of Responses	C/O MECHANICAL TECHNOLOGY, INCORPORATED, 325 WASHINGTON AVENUE EXTENSION, ALBANY NY 12205
Bp Peptides, Llc	10 percent owner	122 EAST 42ND STREET, SUITE 4305, NEW YORK NY 10168
Matthew E. Lipman	director, 10 percent owner	C/O MECHANICAL TECHNOLOGY, INCORPORATED, 325 WASHINGTON AVENUE EXTENSION, ALBANY NY 12205
Biotechnology Value Fund L P	10 percent owner, other: Direct Beneficial Owner	44 MONTGOMERY STREET, 40TH FL, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94104
Leslie M Taeger	officer: Chief Financial Officer
Mark N Lampert	10 percent owner	1 SANSOME ST, 30TH FL, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94104
Eric W Fangmann	director	1540 10TH AVENUE, SAN DIEGO CA 92101
Holliman John M Iii	director, officer: Executive Chairman	6155 N SCOTTADALE ROAD STE 100, SCOTTSDALE AZ 85250
Fredric J Feldman	director	1275 W. WASHINGTON, TEMPE AZ 85281
Bvf Partners L P/il	10 percent owner, other: Indirect Beneficial Owner	44 MONTGOMERY ST., 40TH FLOOR, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94104
Bvf Investments Llc	10 percent owner, other: Direct Beneficial Owner	1 SANSOME ST, 30TH FL, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94104
William M Wardell	director	58 CHRISTOPHER DR, PRINCETON NJ 08540