Cibus (CBUS) Predictability Rank

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What is Cibus Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Cibus Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Cibus Predictability Rank Related Terms

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Cibus (CBUS) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Healthcare » Biotechnology » Cibus Inc (NAS:CBUS) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

6455 Nancy Ridge Drive, San Diego, CA, USA, 92121

Website

https://www.cibus.com

Cibus Inc is a biotechnology company. The company develops and commercializes a proprietary gene-editing technology, Rapid Trait Development System that integrates crop specific cell biology platforms with a series of gene editing technologies.

Executives

Rory B Riggs	director, officer: Chief Executive Officer	65 RAILROAD AVE, RIDGEFIELD NJ 07657
Collins James C. Jr.	director	1007 MARKET STREET, D-9058, WILMINGTON DE 19898
Jonathan Finn	10 percent owner	C/O VANTAGE CONSULTING GROUP, INC., 3500 PACIFIC AVENUE, VIRGINIA BEACH VA 23451
Gerhard Prante	director	SCHONE AUSSICHT 5, HOFHEIM A. TS 2M 65719
Mark Terrence Finn	director	VANTAGE CONSULTING GROUP, INC., 3500 PACIFIC AVENUE, VIRGINIA BEACH VA 23451
Jean-pierre Jules Lehmann	director	21 ALPINASTRASSE, CH 3780, GSTAAD V8 3780
Keith Allen Walker	director	13315 ROXTON CIRCLE, SAN DIEGO CA 92130
Wade Hampton King	officer: Chief Financial Officer	750 MEADOWOOD DRIVE, ASPEN CO 81611
Gocal Gregory Francis William	officer: See Remarks	13737 BASSMORE DR., SAN DIEGO CA 92129
Peter Beetham	director, officer: See Remarks	6455 NANCY RIDGE DRIVE, SAN DIEGO CA 92121
Yves J Ribeill	director	C/O CALYXT, INC., 2800 MOUNT RIDGE ROAD, ROSEVILLE MN 55113
Michael A. Carr	director, officer: President and CEO	2800 MOUNT RIDGE ROAD, ROSEVILLE MN 55113
William Koschak	officer: Chief Financial Officer	2800 MOUNT RIDGE ROAD, ROSEVILLE MN 55113
Sarah Reiter	officer: Chief Business Officer	202 COUSTEAU PLACE, DAVIS CA 95618
Daniel F Voytas	officer: Chief Science Officer	2800 MOUNT RIDGE ROAD, ROSEVILLE MN 55113