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Cadre Holdings (Cadre Holdings) Predictability Rank


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What is Cadre Holdings Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Cadre Holdings Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

PredictablesNon-PredictableAll stocks
Total Number of stocks57018332403
Total Lost Money61830891
Total Lost More Than 50%18412430
Total Lost More Than 90%48690
Average Gain260.6%100.0%138.1%
Median Gain150.0%13.0%39.0%
Maximum Gain2852.0%11483.0%11483.0%
Maximum Loss-100.0%-100.0%-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain12.7%6.7%8.4%
Annualized Median Gain8.9%1.1%3.1%


















For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank5-Star4.5-Star4-Star3.5-Star3-Star2.5-Star2-Star1-Star (non-predictable)Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks 3.3% 2.9% 3.7% 3.3% 3.3% 3.7% 3.3% 76.3% 100%
% that are in Loss (10y) 3% 10% 8% 9% 11% 18% 16% 45% 37%
Average Gain (10y) 364.6% 330.9% 278.0% 235.1% 243.5% 227.8% 154.8% 100.0% 138.1%
Median Gain (10y) 238.5% 193.5% 171.0% 159.0% 132.5% 113.5% 87.0% 13.0% 39.0%
Maximum Gainer 2228.0% 2547.0% 2452.0% 2852.0% 2432.0% 1892.0% 1807.0% 11483.0% 11483.0%
Maximum Loser -82.0% -53.0% -67.0% -100.0% -83.0% -100.0% -78.0% -100.0% -100.0%
Annualized Average Gain 15.4% 14.6% 13.2% 12.0% 12.2% 11.7% 9.1% 6.7% 8.4%
Annualized Median Gain 12.1% 10.6% 9.8% 9.3% 8.2% 7.3% 6.0% 1.1% 3.1%
















For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Also read:

Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety

Cadre Holdings Predictability Rank Related Terms

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Cadre Holdings (Cadre Holdings) Business Description

Industry
GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Industrials » Aerospace & Defense » Cadre Holdings Inc (NYSE:CDRE) » Definitions » Predictability Rank
Comparable Companies
RGR VSEC EH ACHR DCO SWBI PL TGI VVX SPCE RTX BA LMT XPAR:AIR NOC GD XPAR:SAF TDG LSE:BA. LHX
Traded in Other Exchanges
N/A
Address
13386 International Parkway, Jacksonville, FL, USA, 32218
Website
https://www.cadre-holdings.com
Cadre Holdings Inc is engaged in the design and manufacture of a diversified product portfolio of critical safety and survivability equipment to protect first responders, federal agencies, outdoor recreation, and personal protection markets. The Company's equipment provides critical protection to allow its users to safely and securely perform their duties and protect those around them in hazardous or life-threatening situations. Its operations are comprised of two reportable segments: Products and Distribution.
Executives
Blaine Browers officer: CHIEF FINANCIAL OFFICER 13386 INTERNATIONAL PARKWAY, JACKSONVILLE FL 32218
Warren B Kanders director, 10 percent owner, officer: CEO AND CHAIRMAN ONE LANDMARK SQUARE, 22ND FLOOR, STAMFORD, CT 06901
Nicolas Sokolow director 100 BLVD MALESHERBES, PARIS I0 00000
Brad Williams officer: PRESIDENT 13386 INTERNATIONAL PARKWAY, JACKSONVILLE FL 32218
Deborah A Decotis director 1633 BROADWAY, NEW YORK NY 10019
Quigley William G Iii director
Hamish Norton director 13386 INTERNATIONAL PARKWAY, JACKSONVILLE FL 32218
Maui Holdings, Llc 10 percent owner 340 ROYAL POINCIANA WAY, SUITE 317-250, PALM BEACH FL 33480