What is Conduit Pharmaceuticals Predictability Rank?
Not Rated
Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:
1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.
It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.
GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.
Conduit Pharmaceuticals Predictability Rank Calculation
In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.
Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:
Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.
The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.
Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns
| Predictables | Non-Predictable | All stocks |
|---|
| Total Number of stocks | 570 | 1833 | 2403 |
| Total Lost Money | 61 | 830 | 891 |
| Total Lost More Than 50% | 18 | 412 | 430 |
| Total Lost More Than 90% | 4 | 86 | 90 |
| Average Gain | 260.6% | 100.0% | 138.1% |
| Median Gain | 150.0% | 13.0% | 39.0% |
| Maximum Gain | 2852.0% | 11483.0% | 11483.0% |
| Maximum Loss | -100.0% | -100.0% | -100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain | 12.7% | 6.7% | 8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain | 8.9% | 1.1% | 3.1% |
For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.
| Predictability Rank | 5-Star | 4.5-Star | 4-Star | 3.5-Star | 3-Star | 2.5-Star | 2-Star | 1-Star (non-predictable) | Average among all |
|---|
| % Out of All 2403 Stocks |
3.3% |
2.9% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
3.3% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
76.3% |
100% |
| % that are in Loss (10y) |
3% |
10% |
8% |
9% |
11% |
18% |
16% |
45% |
37% |
| Average Gain (10y) |
364.6% |
330.9% |
278.0% |
235.1% |
243.5% |
227.8% |
154.8% |
100.0% |
138.1% |
| Median Gain (10y) |
238.5% |
193.5% |
171.0% |
159.0% |
132.5% |
113.5% |
87.0% |
13.0% |
39.0% |
| Maximum Gainer |
2228.0% |
2547.0% |
2452.0% |
2852.0% |
2432.0% |
1892.0% |
1807.0% |
11483.0% |
11483.0% |
| Maximum Loser |
-82.0% |
-53.0% |
-67.0% |
-100.0% |
-83.0% |
-100.0% |
-78.0% |
-100.0% |
-100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain |
15.4% |
14.6% |
13.2% |
12.0% |
12.2% |
11.7% |
9.1% |
6.7% |
8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain |
12.1% |
10.6% |
9.8% |
9.3% |
8.2% |
7.3% |
6.0% |
1.1% |
3.1% |
For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank
Also read:
Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety
Conduit Pharmaceuticals Business Description
Traded in Other Exchanges
N/A
Address
4581 Tamiami Trail North, Suite 200, Naples, FL, USA, 34103
Conduit Pharmaceuticals Inc is a clinical-stage specialty biopharmaceutical company that was formed to facilitate the development and commercialization of clinical assets that have not been or are not being prioritized by biopharmaceutical companies to develop pharmaceutical products that meet the unmet medical needs of patients. The Company's current development pipeline includes a glucokinase activator, which is Phase II ready for autoimmune diseases including uveitis, Hashimoto's Thyroiditis, preterm labor, and renal transplant rejection. The Company's development pipeline also includes a potent, irreversible inhibitor of human Myeloperoxidase (MPO) that has the potential to treat idiopathic male infertility.
Executives
| Andrew Regan |
director, 10 percent owner |
LE MANOIR DE LURIN, SAINT BARTHELEMY Z0 97133 |
| Intelmed Llc |
other: See Responses |
11421 GOLDEN EAGLE COURT, NAPLES FL 34120 |
| Jennifer Isacoff Mcnealey |
director |
C/O CODEX DNA, INC., 9535 WAPLES STREET, SUITE 100, SAN DIEGO Z4 92121 |
| David Tapolczay |
director, officer: Chief Executive Officer |
32 CROUCH HALL LANE, ST. ALBANS X0 AL3 7EU |
| Faith L. Charles |
director |
ABEONA THERAPEUTICS INC., 1330 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS - FLOOR 33, NEW YORK NY 10019 |
| Algo Holdings, Inc. |
10 percent owner, other: See Responses |
100 W. CYPRESS CREEK ROAD, STE. 640, FORT LAUDERDALE NY 33309 |
| Corvus Capital Ltd. |
10 percent owner, other: See Responses |
WILLOW HOUSE, CRICKET SQUARE PO BOX 709, GRAND CAYMAN E9 KY1 - 1107 |
| Freda C Lewis-hall |
director |
C/O VERTEX PHARMACEUTICALS INCORPORATED, 130 WAVERLY STREET, CAMBRIDGE MA 02139 |
| James Bligh |
director |
38 OXBERRY AVENUE, LONDON X0 SW6 5SS |
| Shaolin Capital Management Llc |
10 percent owner |
230 NW 24TH STREET, SUITE 603, MIAMI FL 33127 |
| Richard Edward Feinberg |
director |
2855 FIFTH AVENUE, UNIT 405, SAN DIEGO CA 92103 |
| Murphy Canyon Acquisition Sponsor, Llc |
10 percent owner |
4995 MURPHY CANYON ROAD, SUITE 300, SAN DIEGO CA 92123 |
| Chele Chiavacci Farley |
director |
4 RIDGE ROAD, TUXEDO PARK NY 10987 |
| Bentzen Edwin H Iv |
officer: Chief Accounting Officer |
2513 BIRCH HOLLOW ST, HENDERSON NV 89044 |
| Jack Kendrick Heilbron |
director, officer: CEO, President, and Chairman |
16433 BRONCO LANE, POWAY CA 92064 |
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