What is Celularity Predictability Rank?
Not Rated
Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:
1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.
It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.
GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.
Celularity Predictability Rank Calculation
In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.
Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:
Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.
The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.
Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns
| Predictables | Non-Predictable | All stocks |
|---|
| Total Number of stocks | 570 | 1833 | 2403 |
| Total Lost Money | 61 | 830 | 891 |
| Total Lost More Than 50% | 18 | 412 | 430 |
| Total Lost More Than 90% | 4 | 86 | 90 |
| Average Gain | 260.6% | 100.0% | 138.1% |
| Median Gain | 150.0% | 13.0% | 39.0% |
| Maximum Gain | 2852.0% | 11483.0% | 11483.0% |
| Maximum Loss | -100.0% | -100.0% | -100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain | 12.7% | 6.7% | 8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain | 8.9% | 1.1% | 3.1% |
For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.
| Predictability Rank | 5-Star | 4.5-Star | 4-Star | 3.5-Star | 3-Star | 2.5-Star | 2-Star | 1-Star (non-predictable) | Average among all |
|---|
| % Out of All 2403 Stocks |
3.3% |
2.9% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
3.3% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
76.3% |
100% |
| % that are in Loss (10y) |
3% |
10% |
8% |
9% |
11% |
18% |
16% |
45% |
37% |
| Average Gain (10y) |
364.6% |
330.9% |
278.0% |
235.1% |
243.5% |
227.8% |
154.8% |
100.0% |
138.1% |
| Median Gain (10y) |
238.5% |
193.5% |
171.0% |
159.0% |
132.5% |
113.5% |
87.0% |
13.0% |
39.0% |
| Maximum Gainer |
2228.0% |
2547.0% |
2452.0% |
2852.0% |
2432.0% |
1892.0% |
1807.0% |
11483.0% |
11483.0% |
| Maximum Loser |
-82.0% |
-53.0% |
-67.0% |
-100.0% |
-83.0% |
-100.0% |
-78.0% |
-100.0% |
-100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain |
15.4% |
14.6% |
13.2% |
12.0% |
12.2% |
11.7% |
9.1% |
6.7% |
8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain |
12.1% |
10.6% |
9.8% |
9.3% |
8.2% |
7.3% |
6.0% |
1.1% |
3.1% |
For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank
Also read:
Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety
Celularity Business Description
Traded in Other Exchanges
N/A
Address
170 Park Avenue, Florham Park, NJ, USA, 07932
Celularity Inc is a clinical-stage biotechnology company developing off-the-shelf placental-derived allogeneic cell therapies including genetically modified and unmodified NK cells, engineered T cells including CAR-T cells, and mesenchymal-like adherent stromal cells, targeting indications across cancer, immunologic, infectious, and degenerative diseases. It manages its operations through an evaluation of three distinct business segments which include Cell Therapy, Degenerative Disease, and bio-banking. The company generates the majority of its revenue from bio-banking segment.
Executives
| Kok Thay Lim |
director |
22ND FLOOR, WISMA GENTING, JALAN SULTAN ISMAIL, KUALA LUMPUR N8 50250 |
| Robert J Hariri |
director, officer: Chief Executive Officer |
341 MENDHAM ROAD, BERNARDSVILLE NJ 07924 |
| Ling Geoffrey M.d. |
director |
C/O CATALYST BIOSCIENCES, INC., 611 GATEWAY BOULEVARD, SUITE 710, SOUTH SAN FRANCISCO CA 94080 |
| Berhad Genting |
10 percent owner |
24TH FLOOR, WISMA GENTING, JALAN SULTAN ISMAIL, KUALA LUMPUR N8 50250 |
| Adrian Kilcoyne |
officer: See Remarks |
533 AIRPORT BLVD., SUITE 400, BURLINGAME CA 94010 |
| John Sculley |
director |
C/O KALEIDO BIOSCIENCES, INC., 65 HAYDEN AVENUE, LEXINGTON MA 02421 |
| Kyle Fletcher |
officer: General Counsel |
CELULARITY INC., 170 PARK AVE., FLORHAM PARK NJ 07932 |
| Peter Diamandis |
director |
4640 ADMIRALTY WAY, SUITE 500, MARINA DEL REY CA 90292 |
| Dean C Kehler |
director |
C/O TRIMARAN CAPITAL PARTNERS, 622 THIRD AVENUE, 35TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10017 |
| Robin L Smith |
director |
C/O PHASE III MEDICAL, INC., 330 SOUTH SERVICE ROAD, SUITE 120, MELVILLE NY 11747 |
| Marc Mazur |
director |
31 WEST 52ND ST. 17TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10019 |
| Diane L. Parks |
director |
29 EMMONS DRIVE, SUITE B-10, PRINCETON NJ 08540 |
| Bradley Glover |
director, officer: Chief Technology Officer |
C/O CELULARITY INC., 170 PARK AVENUE, FLORHAM PARK NJ 07932 |
| Stephen Brigido |
officer: Pres, Functional Regeneration |
C/O CELULARITY INC., 170 PARK AVENUE, FLORHAM PARK NJ 07932 |
| Anne Jones |
director, officer: Chief Business Officer |
C/O CELULARITY INC., 170 PARK AVENUE, FLORHAM PARK NJ 07932 |
Quick Browse
Personalize
Premium Gurus 
Create New Portfolio
Portfolio Contest
CELU has been successfully added to your