What is Community Healthcare Trust Predictability Rank?
Not Rated
Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:
1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.
It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.
GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.
Community Healthcare Trust Predictability Rank Calculation
In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.
Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:
Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.
The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.
Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns
| Predictables | Non-Predictable | All stocks |
|---|
| Total Number of stocks | 570 | 1833 | 2403 |
| Total Lost Money | 61 | 830 | 891 |
| Total Lost More Than 50% | 18 | 412 | 430 |
| Total Lost More Than 90% | 4 | 86 | 90 |
| Average Gain | 260.6% | 100.0% | 138.1% |
| Median Gain | 150.0% | 13.0% | 39.0% |
| Maximum Gain | 2852.0% | 11483.0% | 11483.0% |
| Maximum Loss | -100.0% | -100.0% | -100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain | 12.7% | 6.7% | 8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain | 8.9% | 1.1% | 3.1% |
For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.
| Predictability Rank | 5-Star | 4.5-Star | 4-Star | 3.5-Star | 3-Star | 2.5-Star | 2-Star | 1-Star (non-predictable) | Average among all |
|---|
| % Out of All 2403 Stocks |
3.3% |
2.9% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
3.3% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
76.3% |
100% |
| % that are in Loss (10y) |
3% |
10% |
8% |
9% |
11% |
18% |
16% |
45% |
37% |
| Average Gain (10y) |
364.6% |
330.9% |
278.0% |
235.1% |
243.5% |
227.8% |
154.8% |
100.0% |
138.1% |
| Median Gain (10y) |
238.5% |
193.5% |
171.0% |
159.0% |
132.5% |
113.5% |
87.0% |
13.0% |
39.0% |
| Maximum Gainer |
2228.0% |
2547.0% |
2452.0% |
2852.0% |
2432.0% |
1892.0% |
1807.0% |
11483.0% |
11483.0% |
| Maximum Loser |
-82.0% |
-53.0% |
-67.0% |
-100.0% |
-83.0% |
-100.0% |
-78.0% |
-100.0% |
-100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain |
15.4% |
14.6% |
13.2% |
12.0% |
12.2% |
11.7% |
9.1% |
6.7% |
8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain |
12.1% |
10.6% |
9.8% |
9.3% |
8.2% |
7.3% |
6.0% |
1.1% |
3.1% |
For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank
Also read:
Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety
Community Healthcare Trust Business Description
Traded in Other Exchanges
Address
3326 Aspen Grove Drive, Suite 150, Franklin, TN, USA, 37067
Community Healthcare Trust Inc is an integrated healthcare real estate company in the United States. The company owns and acquires, or finances, real estate properties that are leased to hospitals, doctors, healthcare systems or other healthcare service providers in non-urban markets. The company derives majority of its revenues from its real estate property and mortgage notes portfolio. The company's rental and mortgage interest income is recognized based on contractual arrangements with its tenants and borrowers.
Executives
| David H. Dupuy |
officer: Executive Vice President & CFO |
3326 ASPEN GROVE DRIVE, SUITE 150, FRANKLIN TN 37067 |
| Cathrine Cotman |
director |
3326 ASPEN GROVE DRIVE, SUITE 150, FRANKLIN TN 37067 |
| Van Horn R. Lawrence |
director |
354 COOL SPRINGS BLVD., SUITE 106, FRANKLIN TN 37067 |
| Robert Z Hensley |
director |
C/O 1621 GALLERY BLVD., BRENTWOOD TN 37027 |
| Monroe William G. Iv |
officer: Chief Financial Officer |
3326 ASPEN GROVE DRIVE, SUITE 150, FRANKLIN TN 37067 |
| Timothy L. Meyer |
officer: EVP - Asset Management |
3326 ASPEN GROVE DRIVE, SUITE 150, FRANKLIN TN 37067 |
| Claire M Gulmi |
director |
|
| W. Page Barnes |
officer: Executive VP & CFO |
354 COOL SPRINGS BLVD., SUITE 106, FRANKLIN TN 37067 |
| Leigh Ann Stach |
officer: VP Financial Reporting & CAO |
354 COOL SPRINGS BLVD., SUITE 106, FRANKLIN TN 37067 |
| Timothy G Wallace |
director, officer: Chairman, CEO and President |
|
| Alfred Lumsdaine |
director |
3841 GREEN HILLS VILLAGE DR, NASHVILLE TN 37215 |
| Alan Gardner |
director |
354 COOL SPRINGS BLVD., SUITE 106, FRANKLIN TN 37067 |
| Athena Funding Partners, Llc |
10 percent owner |
354 COOL SPRINGS BLVD., SUITE 106, FRANKLIN TN 37067 |
Quick Browse
Personalize
Premium Gurus 
Create New Portfolio
Portfolio Contest
CHCT has been successfully added to your