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CHRS (Coherus Oncology) Predictability Rank


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What is Coherus Oncology Predictability Rank?

1 (5)

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.


Coherus Oncology Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

PredictablesNon-PredictableAll stocks
Total Number of stocks57018332403
Total Lost Money61830891
Total Lost More Than 50%18412430
Total Lost More Than 90%48690
Average Gain260.6%100.0%138.1%
Median Gain150.0%13.0%39.0%
Maximum Gain2852.0%11483.0%11483.0%
Maximum Loss-100.0%-100.0%-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain12.7%6.7%8.4%
Annualized Median Gain8.9%1.1%3.1%


















For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank5-Star4.5-Star4-Star3.5-Star3-Star2.5-Star2-Star1-Star (non-predictable)Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks 3.3% 2.9% 3.7% 3.3% 3.3% 3.7% 3.3% 76.3% 100%
% that are in Loss (10y) 3% 10% 8% 9% 11% 18% 16% 45% 37%
Average Gain (10y) 364.6% 330.9% 278.0% 235.1% 243.5% 227.8% 154.8% 100.0% 138.1%
Median Gain (10y) 238.5% 193.5% 171.0% 159.0% 132.5% 113.5% 87.0% 13.0% 39.0%
Maximum Gainer 2228.0% 2547.0% 2452.0% 2852.0% 2432.0% 1892.0% 1807.0% 11483.0% 11483.0%
Maximum Loser -82.0% -53.0% -67.0% -100.0% -83.0% -100.0% -78.0% -100.0% -100.0%
Annualized Average Gain 15.4% 14.6% 13.2% 12.0% 12.2% 11.7% 9.1% 6.7% 8.4%
Annualized Median Gain 12.1% 10.6% 9.8% 9.3% 8.2% 7.3% 6.0% 1.1% 3.1%
















For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Also read:

Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety

Coherus Oncology Predictability Rank Related Terms

Thank you for viewing the detailed overview of Coherus Oncology's Predictability Rank provided by GuruFocus.com. Please click on the following links to see related term pages.


Coherus Oncology Business Description

Traded in Other Exchanges
Address
333 Twin Dolphin Drive, Suite 600, Redwood City, CA, USA, 94065
Coherus BioSciences Inc is a commercial-stage biopharmaceutical company focused on the research, development and commercialization of innovative immunotherapies to treat cancer. Coherus is developing an innovative immuno-oncology pipeline which includes multiple antibody immunotherapy candidates focused on enhancing the innate and adaptive immune responses to enable a robust antitumor immunologic response and enhance outcomes for patients with cancer.
Executives
Mats Wahlstrom director 500 GOLDEN RIDGE ROAD, SUITE 100, GOLDEN CO 80401
Dennis M Lanfear director, officer: President and CEO C/O COHERUS BIOSCIENCES, INC., 333 TWIN DOLPHIN DRIVE, SUITE 600, REDWOOD CITY CA 94065
Michael Lee Ryan director C/O COHERUS BIOSCIENCES, INC., 333 TWIN DOLPHIN DRIVE, SUITE 600, REDWOOD CITY CA 94065
Mcdavid Stilwell officer: Chief Financial Officer C/O COHERUS BIOSCIENCES, INC., 333 TWIN DOLPHIN DRIVE, SUITE 600, REDWOOD CITY CA 94065
Bryan J Mcmichael officer: See Remarks C/O COHERUS BIOSCIENCES, INC., 333 TWIN DOLPHIN DRIVE, REDWOOD CITY CA 94065
Paul Reider officer: Chief Commercial Officer C/O COHERUS BIOSCIENCES, INC., 333 TWIN DOLPHIN DRIVE, SUITE 600, REDWOOD CITY CA 94065
Jill O'donnell-tormey director C/O COHERUS BIOSCIENCES, INC., 333 TWIN DOLPHIN DRIVE, SUITE 600, REDWOOD CITY CA 94065
Charles W. Newton director 46 FREDRICK AVENUE, ATHERTON CA 94027
Lee Nisley Newcomer director 264 BUSHAWAY ROAD, WAYZATA MN 55391-1901
James Healy director 3000 SAND HILL ROAD, 4-250, MENLO PARK CA 94025
Vladimir Vexler officer: Chief Scientific Officer 333 TWIN DOLPHIN DRIVE, SUITE 600, REDWOOD CITY CA 94065
Vincent R Anicetti officer: Chief, Quality & Compliance COHERUS BIOSCIENCES, INC., 333 TWIN DOLPHIN DRIVE, SUITE 600, REDWOOD CITY CA 94065
Jean-frederic Viret officer: Chief Financial Officer ANESIVA, INC., 650 GATEWAY BLVD., SOUTH SAN FRANCISCO CA 94080
Mark Stolper director 150 COTNER AVENUE, LOS ANGELES CA 90025
Alan C Mendelson director ALAN C MENDELSON, 135 COMMONWEALTH DR, MENLO PARK CA 94025

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