CHRS (Coherus Oncology) Predictability Rank

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What is Coherus Oncology Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Coherus Oncology Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Coherus Oncology Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Healthcare » Biotechnology » Coherus Oncology Inc (NAS:CHRS) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

8C5:Germany

Address

333 Twin Dolphin Drive, Suite 600, Redwood City, CA, USA, 94065

Website

https://www.coherus.com

Coherus BioSciences Inc is a commercial-stage biopharmaceutical company focused on the research, development and commercialization of innovative immunotherapies to treat cancer. Coherus is developing an innovative immuno-oncology pipeline which includes multiple antibody immunotherapy candidates focused on enhancing the innate and adaptive immune responses to enable a robust antitumor immunologic response and enhance outcomes for patients with cancer.

Executives

Mats Wahlstrom	director	500 GOLDEN RIDGE ROAD, SUITE 100, GOLDEN CO 80401
Dennis M Lanfear	director, officer: President and CEO	C/O COHERUS BIOSCIENCES, INC., 333 TWIN DOLPHIN DRIVE, SUITE 600, REDWOOD CITY CA 94065
Michael Lee Ryan	director	C/O COHERUS BIOSCIENCES, INC., 333 TWIN DOLPHIN DRIVE, SUITE 600, REDWOOD CITY CA 94065
Mcdavid Stilwell	officer: Chief Financial Officer	C/O COHERUS BIOSCIENCES, INC., 333 TWIN DOLPHIN DRIVE, SUITE 600, REDWOOD CITY CA 94065
Bryan J Mcmichael	officer: See Remarks	C/O COHERUS BIOSCIENCES, INC., 333 TWIN DOLPHIN DRIVE, REDWOOD CITY CA 94065
Paul Reider	officer: Chief Commercial Officer	C/O COHERUS BIOSCIENCES, INC., 333 TWIN DOLPHIN DRIVE, SUITE 600, REDWOOD CITY CA 94065
Jill O'donnell-tormey	director	C/O COHERUS BIOSCIENCES, INC., 333 TWIN DOLPHIN DRIVE, SUITE 600, REDWOOD CITY CA 94065
Charles W. Newton	director	46 FREDRICK AVENUE, ATHERTON CA 94027
Lee Nisley Newcomer	director	264 BUSHAWAY ROAD, WAYZATA MN 55391-1901
James Healy	director	3000 SAND HILL ROAD, 4-250, MENLO PARK CA 94025
Vladimir Vexler	officer: Chief Scientific Officer	333 TWIN DOLPHIN DRIVE, SUITE 600, REDWOOD CITY CA 94065
Vincent R Anicetti	officer: Chief, Quality & Compliance	COHERUS BIOSCIENCES, INC., 333 TWIN DOLPHIN DRIVE, SUITE 600, REDWOOD CITY CA 94065
Jean-frederic Viret	officer: Chief Financial Officer	ANESIVA, INC., 650 GATEWAY BLVD., SOUTH SAN FRANCISCO CA 94080
Mark Stolper	director	150 COTNER AVENUE, LOS ANGELES CA 90025
Alan C Mendelson	director	ALAN C MENDELSON, 135 COMMONWEALTH DR, MENLO PARK CA 94025