CHW (Calamos Global Dynamicome Fund) Predictability Rank

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What is Calamos Global Dynamicome Fund Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Calamos Global Dynamicome Fund Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Calamos Global Dynamicome Fund Predictability Rank Related Terms

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Calamos Global Dynamicome Fund Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Financial Services » Asset Management » Calamos Global Dynamic Income Fund (NAS:CHW) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

2020 Calamos Court, Naperville, IL, USA, 60563-2787

Website

https://www.calamos.com

Calamos Global Dynamic Income Fund operates as a closed-end management investment company. The company's investment objective is to generate a high level of current income with the objective of capital appreciation. It dynamically allocates its investment among equities, convertible bonds, fixed-income securities and alternative investments.

Executives

Erik D. Ojala	officer: VP, Sec'y & Chief Legal Off.	2020 CALAMOS CT., NAPERVILLE IL 60563
Susan L Schoenberger	officer: VP and Assistant Secretary	2020 CALAMOS COURT, NAPERVILLE IL 60563
Metlife Investment Management, Llc	10 percent owner	ONE METLIFE WAY, WHIPPANY NJ 07981
Northwestern Mutual Life Insurance Co	10 percent owner	720 EAST WISCONSIN AVENUE, MILWAUKEE WI 53202
Daniel Dufresne	officer: Vice President	2020 CALAMOS COURT, NAPERVILLE IL 60563
Stephen Atkins	officer: Treasurer	2020 CALAMOS COURT, NAPERVILLE IL 60563
David D Tripple	director	2020 CALAMOS COURT, NAPERVILLE IL 60563
Christopher M Toub	director	2020 CALAMOS COURT, NAPERVILLE IL 60563
Karen Stuckey	director	2020 CALAMOS COURT, NAPERVILLE IL 60563
Dave Vanisko	officer: Treasurer	2020 CALAMOS COURT, NAPERVILLE IL 60563
Lloyd Wennlund	director	2020 CALAMOS COURT, NAPERVILLE IL 60563
Massachusetts Mutual Life Insurance Co	10 percent owner	1295 STATE STREET, SPRINGFIELD MA 01111
John S. Koudounis	officer: Vice President	2020 CALAMOS COURT, NAPERVILLE IL 60563
Thomas E Herman	officer: VP and CFO	2020 CALAMOS COURT, NAPERVILLE IL 60563
Virginia G Breen	director	C/O CMGI. INC., 1100 WINTER STREET, WALTHAM MA 02451