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Blackrock Enhanced Cap&Inc Fund, (Blackrock Enhanced Cap&Inc Fund,) Predictability Rank


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Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.


Blackrock Enhanced Cap&Inc Fund, Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

PredictablesNon-PredictableAll stocks
Total Number of stocks57018332403
Total Lost Money61830891
Total Lost More Than 50%18412430
Total Lost More Than 90%48690
Average Gain260.6%100.0%138.1%
Median Gain150.0%13.0%39.0%
Maximum Gain2852.0%11483.0%11483.0%
Maximum Loss-100.0%-100.0%-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain12.7%6.7%8.4%
Annualized Median Gain8.9%1.1%3.1%


















For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank5-Star4.5-Star4-Star3.5-Star3-Star2.5-Star2-Star1-Star (non-predictable)Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks 3.3% 2.9% 3.7% 3.3% 3.3% 3.7% 3.3% 76.3% 100%
% that are in Loss (10y) 3% 10% 8% 9% 11% 18% 16% 45% 37%
Average Gain (10y) 364.6% 330.9% 278.0% 235.1% 243.5% 227.8% 154.8% 100.0% 138.1%
Median Gain (10y) 238.5% 193.5% 171.0% 159.0% 132.5% 113.5% 87.0% 13.0% 39.0%
Maximum Gainer 2228.0% 2547.0% 2452.0% 2852.0% 2432.0% 1892.0% 1807.0% 11483.0% 11483.0%
Maximum Loser -82.0% -53.0% -67.0% -100.0% -83.0% -100.0% -78.0% -100.0% -100.0%
Annualized Average Gain 15.4% 14.6% 13.2% 12.0% 12.2% 11.7% 9.1% 6.7% 8.4%
Annualized Median Gain 12.1% 10.6% 9.8% 9.3% 8.2% 7.3% 6.0% 1.1% 3.1%
















For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Also read:

Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety

Blackrock Enhanced Cap&Inc Fund, Predictability Rank Related Terms

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Blackrock Enhanced Cap&Inc Fund, (Blackrock Enhanced Cap&Inc Fund,) Business Description

Traded in Other Exchanges
N/A
Address
100 Bellevue Parkway, Wilmington, DE, USA, 19809
Blackrock Enhanced Cap&Inc Fund, Inc is a closed-end management investment company. Its objective is to provide total return through a combination of current income and capital appreciation. The trust seeks to achieve its investment objective by investing a majority of its total assets in a portfolio of equity securities of U.S. and foreign issuers.
Executives
Arthur Philip Steinmetz director 50 HUDSON YARDS, NEW YORK NY 10001
Aaron David Wasserman officer: Chief Compliance Officer 50 HUDSON YARDS, NEW YORK NY 10001
Lorenzo Flores director 2100 LOGIC DRIVE, SAN JOSE CA 95124
James Phillip Holloman director P.O. BOX 625737, 6800 CINTAS BOULEVARD, CINCINNATI OH 45262
Stayce D. Harris director 1999 S. BASCOM AVE., SUITE 700, CAMPBELL CA 95008
Trent Walker officer: Chief Financial Officer C/O PIMCO, 650 NEWPORT CENTER DRIVE, NEWPORT BEACH CA 92660
Kyle Mcclements other: Portfolio Manager 100 BELLEVUE PARKWAY, WILMINGTON DE 19809
Joseph Wolfe other: Portfolio Manager 1 UNIVERSITY SQUARE DRIVE, PRINCETON NJ 08540
Christopher Accettella other: Portfolio Manager 100 BELLEVUE PARKWAY, WILMINGTON DE 19809
Todd Burnside other: Portfolio Manager 55 EAST 52ND STREET, NEW YORK NY 10055
Frank Fabozzi director 100 BELLEVUE PARKWAY, WILMINGTON DE 19809
Robert Glenn Hubbard director 100 BELLEVUE PARKWAY, WILMINGTON DE 19809
Richard Cavanagh director 100 BELLEVUE PARKWAY, WILMINGTON DE 19809
W Carl Kester director 100 BELLEVUE PARKWAY, WILMINGTON DE 19809
Karen P Robards director 800 SCUDDERS MILL RD, PLAINSBORO NJ 08536

Blackrock Enhanced Cap&Inc Fund, (Blackrock Enhanced Cap&Inc Fund,) Headlines

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